Daily Chartbook #4

Welcome to PAV Chartbook: market charts, data, research, and insights pulled from various sources around the Internet by a solo retail investor.

1. Checking in on the “smart money”. The National Association of Active Investment Managers (NAAIM) Exposure Index (represent the average exposure to US equities by members) is creeping up.

2. Fool’s gold. Not even commodities traders want it, they are heavily short the precious metal.

3. Volatility. Broad pessimism is being reflected in record open interest on strikes at or above 40. As of this writing, VIX is at 23.04.

4. Bear market rallies. Are we in one now? Nobody knows, but worth noting there were three +35% rallies during the 2000s bear market.

5. S&P Global Composite PMI. The flash PMI for output of manufacturing and services fell sharply in June. The decline in services stood out—it was the most severe drop since May 2020. The US economy is “contracting at rate not seen since the global financial crisis in 2009 (excluding the initial pandemic lockdown)”.

6. Trouble ahead. Order-inventory ratios spell more pain ahead for manufacturing in August.

7. Manufacturing recession. A reading below 0 (LHS) indicates a contraction for the Philly Fed Manufacturing Index (already contracting). A reading below 50 (RHS) indicates a contraction for the ISM Manufacturing PMI (not quite there yet).

8. High prices for everyone. Here’s a look at inflation rates around the world.

9. Inflation growth headwind. Higher prices have economic growth slowing around the world.

10. Conference Board downgrade. The Board expects economic growth in the US to slow down throughout the year. It also downgraded its forecast for 2022 annual Real GDP growth to 1.7% YoY (prev. 2.3%). Growth for 2023 moved down to 0.5% YoY (prev. 1.8%).

11. 4-month streak. The Leading Economic Index (above) declined for the 4th straight month. Every other time that has happened “came either during or right before a recession”.

12. Leading Economic Index. Here are the contributing factors to the index.

13. CEO confidence. There’s too big of divergence here. Capex will likely need to come down which means further headwinds for economic activity/growth.

14. Dovish Fed? With the latest CPI stoking recession fears, the US swaps market is pricing in a less aggressive Fed.

15. Central banks. The 4 largest developed economies (US, EZ, JP, UK) all showed falling output in their July flash PMIs. Meanwhile, central banks are hiking to fight inflation. “It’s now a question of how deep will these downturns be.”

16. Homebuyer demand cooling off. Sales are now back to 2019 levels.

17. This should help with the backlog of construction. Homebuilder supply bottlenecks are showing signs of improvement.

18. More on US homebuilders. “Chart below helps explain why home builders are dialing it back quickly. Unsold new home months of supply are now at a record high for under construction (orange line), and homes not started (green line). Expecting unsold completed homes (purple line) to start rising fast.”

19. The US housing market looks great compared to China. There are over 225 square million meters of unfinished homes and homebuyers are refusing to pay mortgages to 305 projects as of July 17.

20. Costly halts. And here’s how much these building halts are costing.

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