Daily Chartbook #104

Welcome back to Daily Chartbook: macro market charts, data, and insights pulled from various sources around the Internet by a solo retail investor.

1. EIA update. US petroleum inventory levels.

2. WTI vs. SPR. Here's a look at crude prices alongside SPR levels.

3. O&G capex. Oil & gas companies "capital expenditure in third-quarter 2022 totaled $71 billion, 32% higher than in third-quarter 2021".

4. Mortgage activity. Mortgage application volume "rose by 3.2% on a seasonally adjusted (SA) basis from one week earlier. Purchasing activity increased 4.0%, while refinancing activity increased 2.8% week-over-week".

5. Import prices (I). "Import prices ex-petroleum have now shown negative growth for 7 consecutive months".

6. Import prices (II). "Core import price growth has moved below trend and squarely into deflation territory".

7. Steady financial conditions. "The National Financial Conditions Index (NFCI) was unchanged at –0.21 in the week ending December 9".

8. Pessimistic outlook. Fund managers are not expecting a stronger economy over the next 12 months.

9. Hourly earnings vs. CPI. "Now with an update to November CPI, confirmed that 3-month annualized change in average hourly earnings (+5.8%) was stronger than that for CPI (+3.7%)".

10. FOMC dot plot. "50 basis point increase approved. No changes to statement. Most officials see rates ending 2023 between 5% and 5.5%".

11. Market not buying it. "Market keeps laughing at Fed's forecasts: sees 4.4% year-end rate 2023, 0.7% below Fed".

12. Fed projections. "Fed projections see weaker economy in 2023; higher unemployment rates, more inflation and 50bps higher Fed funds rate. Powell is taking full responsibility for pushing the US into recession".

13. Unemployment forecast. "Hawkish revisions to the unemployment forecast. Most officials project an unemployment rate that rises to 4.6% or higher by the end of 2023 and stays above 4% after that".

14. PCE projection. "PCE is expected to fall within the FOMC target range by ... 2025".

15. 10Y vs 3M. "Going back to 1962, there have been four other periods where the 3m10y curve inverted by 50 bps or more for at least 15 straight trading days.  Each of those prior streaks lasted much longer than the current streak".

16. Commodities > bonds. "Fund managers are underweight commodities relative to bonds".

17. Gold undervalued? "Highest share of FMS investors viewing gold as undervalued since at least 2008".

18. China optimism. Optimism on China's growth is "seen in expectations for US dollar depreciation".

19. EM FX strength. "China reopening and Fed optimism explain some – but not all – of EM FX strength since the November FOMC".

20. EM exposure. Expectations of US dollar depreciation are "driving investors towards EM equities".

21. CPI leak? "Over a 60-second span before the data went out, over 13,000 March 10-year futures traded hands (during a period when activity is usually nonexistent) as the contract was bid up".

22. Rotations (I). "The rotation from value and safety back to growth and risk will provide a strong tailwind for returns when it occurs".

23. Rotations (II). "December sees rotation into bonds/EM/tech, out of industrials/cash/energy".

24. Hedge fund positioning. "Net leverage for equity long/shorts taking a ride on the flat line at very low levels while quant nets spiking....Note that this is month-end November (so an eternity in finance terms...)".

25. Oversold energy. "For only the 23rd time since 1953, the percentage of oversold stocks within the energy sector exceeded 95%".

26. Buybacks (I). "Share buybacks also keeping the market afloat despite the Fed hiking rates and cutting its balance sheet".

27. Buybacks (II). Q3 marks "the slowest quarter for repurchases since the middle of last year and coming in roughly 25% below the levels seen in late 2021 and early 2022".

28. January effect (I). “There are more inflows in January than the other 11 months of the year combined”.

29. January effect (II). And finally, “that January effect isn't that great if you look at data since 1990. Muted as the base case scenario?”

Thanks for reading!