Daily Chartbook #11

Welcome to PAV Chartbook: market charts, data, research, and insights pulled from various sources around the Internet by a solo retail investor.

1. Fossil fuel dependence. Oil, gas, and coal account for 83% of today’s global energy.

2. Surprisingly partisan renewables. Republican districts account for 86% of solar, wind, and battery capacity among the top 10 districts for each technology.

3. Surprisingly partisan renewables (2). Republican districts also dominate in terms of clean energy projects.

4. Dwindling stockpiles. The US Strategic Petroleum Reserve holds the lowest amount of barrels since 1985.

5. Meanwhile, in Europe. “European natural gas and electricity prices are 5x-7x higher than US levels.”

6. Sticky inflation? There’s a mismatch between shorter- and longer-term inflation expectations.

7. Real funds rate. A deeply negative real Federal funds rate could lead to more aggressive interest rate hikes.

8. Worldwide slowdown. Global Manufacturing PMI is heading towards contraction territory.

9. Global shipping costs. Benchmark ocean freight rates continue to fall sharply.

10. US air travel costs. Domestic airfare is expected to drop 25% in August (from peak prices in May).

11. Spending on Services over Goods. Services inflation tends to be stickier than goods inflation.

12. Credit card debt. The current average household credit card debt of $8,353 is $986 above the 10-year average of $7,367.

13. Low obligations ratio. On the other hand, financial obligations as a percentage of disposable income remain historically low.

14. JOLTs. Job openings fell sharply by 605,000 to roughly 10.7 million in June, below expectations.

15. Biggest* drop. This was the biggest monthly drop in job openings (outside of Covid-related March and April 2020) since the JOLTs series began.

16. Quits unchanged. Workers left their jobs in June at the same rate they did in May.

17. Soft landing-esque. Despite the massive drop in openings, there are still nearly 2 jobs for every unemployed worker.

18. Bigger picture. Here’s a more complete look at the JOLTs report.

19. Layoff talk. Companies have been mentioning layoffs much more recently.

20. Firings by sector. Here’s where those layoffs are happening.

21. US10YR. The 10-year Treasury yield saw one of its biggest gains in 5 years today. It has dropped roughly 20% since mid-June highs.

22. Earnings growth stalls. With over 72% of companies reported, S&P earnings are “on pace for the first negative growth rate we've seen since Q4 2020”. They are currently down 3% YoY.

23. Average valuations. The S&P 500 is currently near its average year-end P/E ratio (since 1989) of 19.6.

24. Bearish equities. “Positioning remains bearish” according to Deutsche Bank.

25. Free cash flow. Energy companies have a FCF yield of nearly 2.7x that of tech companies.

26. Tech earnings. Earnings estimates for tech companies continue to decline rapidly.

27. Stock repurchases. And finally, here are where the biggest buybacks are happening.