Daily Chartbook #115

Welcome back to Daily Chartbook: macro market charts, data, and insights pulled from various sources around the Internet by a solo retail investor.

1. Food prices. "Global food prices ended 2022 roughly where they started".

2. Food inflation. "Food at home inflation has been higher than food away from home inflation; we expect this gap to narrow through 2023 as commodity prices stabilize".

3. Non-farm payrolls (I). The economy added 223k jobs in December (vs. 200k expected).

4. Non-farm payrolls (II). Contributions by sector.

5. Non-farm payrolls (III). "Record streak of better than expected non farm payrolls reports".

6. Establishment vs. household survey According to the more volatile household survey, employment expanded by 717k.

7. Unemployment rate. "The US Unemployment Rate moved down to 3.5% in December, tied with pre-pandemic levels for the lowest rate we've seen since 1969".

8. Participation rate. "The Labor Force Participation Rate increased to 62.3% in December, from 62.2% in November".

9. Average hourly earnings (I). Average hourly earnings grew 0.3% MoM (vs. 0.4% expected), a positive sign in the eyes of the Fed.

10. Average hourly earnings (II).  Average hourly earnings rose 4.6% YoY (vs. 5% expected), "this was the slowest wage growth since August 21".

11. Average hourly earnings (III). "Not only did average hourly earnings drop, but average weekly hours dropped to the lost in two years, and below the long-term average".

12. ISM Services PMI (I). "ISM Services tumbled into contraction at 49.6 (vs 55.0 exp) from 56.5 in November. That is the biggest drop since 2020 and the first contraction since May 2020".

13. ISM Services PMI (II). New Orders plunged suggesting a weak outlook.

14. New orders vs. Fed. "The Fed is usually in easing mode when both ISM services and manufacturing new orders are below 50! We're now there…".

15. Fed vs. market. Markets are pricing a cut in rates despite the Fed's hawkish minutes.

16. Dove-hawk lineup. "None of the dovish voters have dissented despite a sequence of four 75 bp and on 50 bp hike".

17. 10Y/3M inversion. "3mo/10yr treasury curve inverted by 93 bps. You could see it as the market fighting the Fed - or as the market saying the Fed's forecast for inflation persistence is wrong".

18. M2 unch. "In the 12 months to November, according to the Fed, M2 growth was exactly zero. This was the first time this had ever happened".

19. Commodity-linked flow. "For all the disruptive fervor in commodity markets last year, assets under management in commodity-linked investor products ended 2022 slightly below the level where they started".

20. O&G capital spending. "Structural underinvestment supports upcycle in commodity prices".

21. Hedge fund launches. "Hedge fund launches reached their lowest level in Q3 2022 since the last three months of 2008".

22. Corporate insiders. "S&P 500 insider selling is at record-low levels".

23. Equity flows. "Equity funds saw $32.6bn outflow in past 8 weeks".

24. Daily trading sentiment. "Composite is back to mildly pessimistic levels -- at 40% bullish. OK for the very short-term. However, significant rallies during bear markets have typically started from <25% level. Note: Hedge fund sentiment still very pessimistic".

25. Consumer sentiment vs. S&P. "In the past 50 yrs, by the time consumer sentiment gets this low, the recession has been nearly over".

26. Squeeze potential. "$NDX aggregated put/call ratio is at a level not seen since in a decade".

27. Q4 EPS estimates (I). Energy and Utilities saw increases in Q4 earnings estimates from Sept 30 to Dec 31 while the remaining 9 sectors saw declines, led by Materials and Consumer Discretionary.

28. Q4 EPS estimates (II). "For Q4 2022, the estimated earnings decline for the S&P 500 is -4.1%. If -4.1% is the actual decline for the quarter, it will mark the first time the index has reported a year-over-year earnings decline since Q3 2020".

29. CY23 EPS estimates. Utilities and Energy saw increases in CY23 earnings estimates from Sept 30 to Dec 31 while the remaining 9 sectors saw declines, led by Communications and Consumer Discretionary.

30. Forward P/E ratios. And finally, the S&P 500's 12-month P/E ratio is below its 5- and 10-year averages.

Have a great weekend!