Daily Chartbook #118

Welcome back to Daily Chartbook: macro market charts, data, and insights pulled from various sources around the Internet by a solo retail investor.

Administrative note: Daily Chartbook will not be published Monday, January 16 (MLK).

1. Smuggled oil. "I have updated this unbelievable chart showing Chinese imports of 'Malaysian' oil. If you trust Beijing, it means that China imported a record ~1.2m b/d of oil from Malaysia in November, double the country's output of ~0.6m b/d".

2. US petroleum inventory levels. "BIG 22.4 million barrel US commercial petroleum inventory build last week".

3. US crude inventories. "A big jump in US crude inventories today. Some seasonal effect is certainly in play here, but the increase is still very large relative to recent history".

4. Plastic-driven oil demand. "US oil demand will rise to near-record levels in 2024 despite a significant drop in gasoline use, thanks to our thirst for plastic".

5. CPI vs. crude & natgas. "There have only been 19 times in which both WTI and natural gas were down on a year-over-year basis .. In the five periods when Core CPI was 3% or above .., the rate declined by an average of 0.6 percentage points with declines all five times".

6. Commercial real estate. "US commercial property prices have fallen by 13% from their peak in April 2022".

7. Public vs. private real estate. "The return gap between public and private real estate investments is the largest on record".

8. Housing affordability. "US housing affordability improved slightly over the past 2 months".

9. Few foreclosures. "The share of loans in foreclosure remains very low, despite ticking up in Q1".

10. Mortgage rates. "We expect mortgage rates to rise to 6.5% by year-end 2023 before falling to 6.15% in 2024".

11. Mortgage activity. "Mortgage activity is down 67% since the end of 2021 and down 81% since the peak in early 2021. Home prices are likely to trend down for a while, which should help reduce Shelter CPI later in 2023 & hopefully improve home affordability".

12. Rental demand plunges. "Both Q3 and Q4 recorded the weakest numbers since 2013".

13. US freight. "Early freight data suggests that January trucking contract volumes have started off stronger than we expected. (white line is 2023)".

14. Discretionary spending. "Although upper-income spending modestly outperformed lower-income spending during the holidays, we see no clear signs of cracks in the latter".

15. NFCI. "The National Financial Conditions Index (NFCI) edged down to –0.27 in the week ending January 6, suggesting financial conditions loosened".

16. Recession indicators. "The 6 things the NBER looks at to determine if we are in a recession or not shows all 6 are up past 3 mos".

17. Global indexes. "For only the 11th time since 1972, the percentage of global indexes in a bear market cycled from > 60% to 0%".

18. Emerging Markets vs. US. "Throughout its long hibernation, it has only once managed a relative rally this strong, in 2016 after fears of a Chinese financial crisis created a buying opportunity".

19. Emerging Markets rally. "This is only the eighth time in 35 years that the iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF has jumped 20% or more from at least a two-year low".

20. SPACs fizzle. "Deal-hungry blank-check companies dashing to meet deadlines are eyeing smaller targets".

21. BTFD. The buy-the-dip strategy is dead.

22. Low call buying. "Either consensus is going to be right or markets have some more upside".

23. Equity positioning. “Consolidated equity positioning is in the 14th percentile”.

24. Dividends. "While S&P 500 earnings moved lower in 2022, dividends continued their upward trend, with new highs in each of the 4 quarters and a >10% year-over-year increase".

25. Q4 revenue growth. "Energy, Industrials and Consumer Discretionary are all expected to show revenue growth exceeding inflation".

26. EPS expectations. "When you read that earnings are holding up pretty well, remember: It is a gradual move to zero growth".

27. Juiced numbers. "Companies are reporting higher earnings to Wall Street than to the Federal Govt".

28. Bottom triggers. "According to BofA, the bear market is not over as only 40% of bear market signposts have been triggered".

29. Stock picking is hard. And finally, from 2000 to 2020, "only 22% of stocks SPX outperformed the index. Over that period, SPX gained 322%, while median stock rose just 63%".

Thanks for reading!