Daily Chartbook #122

Welcome back to Daily Chartbook: macro market charts, data, and insights pulled from various sources around the Internet by a solo retail investor.

1. Cancellations. 2/3 of KB Homes homebuyers walked away from their contracts in Q4. Only 13% did so in Q4 2021.

2. Mortgage applications. Mortgage applications surged by 27.9%, the most since March 2020.

3. NAHB. "Bounce for [NAHB] Housing Market Index, up to 35 vs. 31 est. & 31 in prior month; future sales component (orange) moved up to 37 … prospective buyers traffic also ticked higher (to 23 vs. 20 prior)".

4. C-suite outlook. "Perhaps no surprise but CEOs around globe are mainly concerned about recession".

5. Restrictive policy. "Investors now see monetary policy as too restrictive".

6. PPI (I). Producer prices fell 0.5% in December (biggest drop since April 2020) and are up 6.2% YoY (smallest increase since March 2021).

7. PPI (II). Month-over-month change with contributions.

8. CPI vs. PPI. "CPI > PPI for first time since Dec 2020. About those sliding margins…".

9. Retail sales (I). "In nominal terms, US Retail Sales still appear to be strong, rising 5.2% over the last year. Real Retail Sales peaked in March 2021 & are down 1.2% over the last year. This was the 4th consecutive month w/ a YoY real decline".

10. Retail sales (II). Month-over-month change with contributions.

11. Beige Book talk. Instances of "inflation".

12. Industrial production. "December industrial production -0.7% m/m vs. -0.1% est. & -0.6% prior (rev down from -0.2%) … manufacturing production -1.3% vs. -0.2% est. & -1.1% prior (rev down from -0.6%)".

13. Utilization. "Capacity utilization at 78.8% is 0.8% below the average from 1972 to 2021".

14. Q4 GDP. "Atlanta Fed GDPNow down to 3.5% from 4.1% following this AM's data".

15. 2Y breakeven. "U.S. 2y breakeven rate has come back down to just above 2%, which is consistent with where it was at start of 2017, 2018, 2019, and end of 2020".

16. S&P vs. US10Y. "Rolling 120-day correlation between S&P 500 and U.S. 10y Treasury yield now hovering at lowest since 1997".

17. Deep inversion. "US 3-month/10-year yield curve now inverted by 128 bps, the most since 1981…Market clearly pricing in slowdown/recession/disinflation - no soft landing narrative here".

18. USD bearishness. "Our Currency Strategy team doubled down on their already-contrarian USD bearishness and revised their USD forecasts lower. They now see the $DXY ending 2023 at 98".

19. China vs. USD. "China is driving USD more than Fed hikes".

20. Global breadth. "Percentage of world markets above their 200-day average continues to expand".

21. Reversals. "2023 started with a reversal of some of the 2022 trends".

22. Peak cash. "Cash levels down to 5.3% from 5.9%".

23. Dumb money confidence. "Caution in the near term is warranted in the market. Dumb money confidence is now at elevated levels".

24. Buybacks. "Despite a 1% buybacks tax, corp. client buybacks so far in Jan. are tracking similar to 2019/2020 early Jan. levels, though below Jan. 2022 highs".

25. EPS revisions. "Revisions to 2023 consensus estimates tracking at low end of historical range".

26. 2023 EPS (I). Estimated YoY earnings declines for Q1 and Q2 are -0.6% and -0.7%, respectively.

27. 2023 EPS (II). Estimated year-over-year growth in earnings for Q1. Six sectors are expected to show a decline.

28. 2023 EPS (III). Estimated year-over-year growth in earnings for Q2. "Materials and Health Care sectors are the only two sectors predicted to report a year-over-year decrease in earnings for both quarters".

29. 2023 EPS (IV). And finally, "US earnings growth has only started the year lower once in 34 years".

Thanks for reading!