Daily Chartbook #123

Welcome back to Daily Chartbook: macro market charts, data, and insights pulled from various sources around the Internet by a solo retail investor.

1. US petroleum inventory levels. "Another big 8.4 MMbbl US commercial crude inventory build last week, though headline petroleum build number was only 2.4 MMbbl given net product draws".

2. Mortgage rates. "12-week change in 30y U.S. mortgage rate has dipped to most negative since February 2020".

3. US housing data (I). "Housing Starts and Building Permits both declined in December (-1.4% MoM and -1.6% MoM respectively) with starts better than expected but forward-looking permits below expectations. This is the 3rd straight month of declines in permits and 4th straight drop in starts".

4. US housing data (II). "Single family permits imploded -6.5%, down to 730K SAAR from 781K, lowest since May 2020".

5. US housing data (III). Meanwhile, multi-familty permits rebounded and "single-family starts soared 11.3% MoM while multi-family starts plunged 18.9% MoM".

6. Record construction. "Combined, there are an all-time record 1.712 million units under construction".

7. Jobless claims (I). "The US labor market appears to about as strong as it has ever been as the number of Americans filing for first time unemployment benefits plunged to 190k (well below the 214k expectation) - its lowest level since April 2022".

8. Jobless claims (II). "Continuing jobless claims rose last week, up from 1.63mm to 1.647mm".

9. Payrolls & GDP. "We are living through another period where job growth temporarily lags the business cycle. .. We have seen this several times before. .. Something has to give and we think it will come in the form of a sharp weakening of the job market".

10. Financial conditions. "The National Financial Conditions Index (NFCI) edged down to –0.34 in the week ending January 13, suggesting financial conditions loosened again".

11. Philly manufacturing (I). The Philadelphia Manufacturing Index improved to "-8.9 vs. -11 est. & -13.8 prior; new orders moved up to -10.9, delivery times moved up to -5.6, and average workweek popped back into expansion (+4); prices paid continued to ease and employment popped higher (out of contraction)".

12. Philly manufacturing (II). Prices paid are at the lowest since August 2020.

13. Debt ceiling. The US Treasury Department began "extraordinary measures" today, which "will likely last until early September, or potentially until October if factoring in the burst of corporate tax payments".

14. Global bonds record start. "Global bonds of all stripes surge 4.1% to start the year, the best performance in data stretching back to 1999".

15. Treasury shorts. "Hedge funds rushed to cover their Treasury short positions in the lead up to December inflation data as talks of a brewing recession heat up".

16. Low expectations. FMS are still bearish (but less so than last month) on growth.

17. Liquidity leading indicator. "Even if the Fed is done tightening, the liquidity backdrop is already very unfavorable for equities, further increasing the chance of new lows".

18. S&P vs. liquidity. "Morgan Stanley fears a market correction as liquidity starts draining".

19. AAII sentiment. "Spread has narrowed but it's still 42 weeks in a row of [bears over bulls]".

20. Fading rally. "Is this most recent rally over? It appears so. While US Market Intelligence began the year neutral-to-bullish, it is beginning to feel like we are entering a ‘bad news is bad news’ market as the disinflation narrative has become consensus".

21. Resistance. "The S&P 500 has not managed to close above the 200D for more than two consecutive business days. And until equities move and close decisively higher, investors remain cautious on equities -- a ‘show me’ situation".

22. Crash expectations. "The percentage of average citizens that think global stock markets will crash in the upcoming year".

23. Q4 earnings (I). "The 4Q reporting season has just started, and the consensus is calling for a sizable drop in earnings, including -5.1% YoY for US IG issuers and -9.5% YoY ex. Finance and Energy".

24. Q4 earnings (II). "Larger companies by revenue are expected to report weaker 4Q earnings growth".

25. Inflation vs. profits. "Inflation helped corporate profits—this year's slowing inflation (and pockets of deflation) could lead to margin compression".

26. Resilient margins. "Despite higher input costs, higher wages, increased payrolls, slowing demand, no more stimulus, and higher borrowing costs…Analysts expect net margins to remain at a record".

27. Margins reversion. "S&P 500 ex. Energy margin will fall from 12.7% peak (2021) to 11.3% (2023)".

28. Earnings revisions. Consensus revisions to 2023 EPS estimates since start of Q4.

29. Earnings drivers. And finally, “S&P 500 earnings estimate, with contribution by key drivers”.

Thanks for reading!