Daily Chartbook #127

Welcome back to Daily Chartbook: macro market charts, data, and insights pulled from various sources around the Internet by a solo retail investor.

1. US petroleum inventory levels. "US oil stocks continuing recent trend: total petroleum, crude, gasoline up; diesel down. Total commercial petroleum inventories rose 4 MMbbl last week (vs +2.4 prior week)".

2. Mortgage demand. "Decent rebound in mortage applications at the start of the year following the drop back in mortgage rates".

3. Home prices. "Home prices divided by weekly earnings has come down...to 2005 levels".

4. Global freight (I). "Baltic Exchange Dry Index has come back down to where it was in June 2020".

5. Global freight (II). "The cost of shipping a container from Asia to the US peaked at $8,585 in March last year and has since plummeted to $1,200 — the lowest since 2018".

6. Egg prices. "The cost of a dozen eggs in the US has moved from $1.79 to $4.25 over the last year, the largest 12-month % increase on record (+138%)".

7. Back to the office. "US office occupancy hit a new post-pandemic high last week, at 49.5%. Recent high-profile layoff news may be encouraging return to office".

8. Household savings. "There is 'no sequel for the savings story .. Household savings are falling .. on track to dwindle rapidly .. and a slowdown in spending is ahead of us'".

9. Financial conditions (I). "The National Financial Conditions Index (NFCI) edged down to –0.37 in the week ending January 20, suggesting financial conditions continued to loosen".

10. Financial conditions (II). "When do loose financial conditions (FCI) become a problem for markets? We are way past Jackson Hole levels".

11. Financial conditions vs. inflation. "The sensitivity of financial conditions to inflation surprises has jumped to unprecedented levels".

12. Stimulus vs. inflation. "U.S. fiscal stimulus contributed to excess inflation of about 2.6 percentage points domestically".

13. Recession probabilities. "Is it happening or not? Morgan Stanley's probability scenario".

14. Retirement assets. "Q322 showed a 3rd consecutive drawdown in total US retirement assets, falling 4%. The last instance of three straight negative quarterly changes was during the Financial Crisis, which suffered four".

15. Swaps vs. Fed. "The swaps market has over the last week been steadily pricing around 48 basis points of rate hikes over the next two policy meetings".

16. 10-1. "The spread between 10-year and 1-year Treasury yields moved down to -1.26% last week, the most inverted curve since September 1981. The last 8 recessions in the US were all preceded by an inversion in this yield curve relationship".

17. Risk index. "At -0.50 (vs -0.47 last week) our Risk Index shows that investors are becoming ever more optimistic. The trend in the Index remains lower. Investors are the most optimistic they have been in nearly 18 months".

18. Money markets (I). "Investors have added about $135 billion to global money-market funds over the past four weeks...the best stretch since the four-week period ended May 2020".

19. Money markets (II). "The average return on U.S. money-market funds this month is 4.12%, the highest yield since the 2008 financial crisis".

20. Group flows. "Corporate clients led net inflows, while Institutional clients led outflow. Add the odd short-seller with panic to the buyside as well...(which might grow..)".

21. CTAs buying. "McElligott notes they have bought around $140bn worth of equities since December...and the current net long isn't overly spectacular".

22. Macro hedge funds. "Not only 'no longer short' [equities] but actually at a close to 12m long. Could go much longer though…".

23. Semis inventories. "People tend to be very bearish at the bottom of a [tech] cycle .. We recommend investors not to lose sight of the key indicators .. A peak in inventory typically marks the inflection point for stock prices".

24. Reopening vs. stay-at-home. "Ratio of re-opening-to-stay home baskets (tracked by Goldman Sachs) has risen to highest since May 2022".

25. Put/call premium. "This has provided fuel for a short-term rally in the market…Put/call premium is coming off record levels".

26. Earnings estimate progression (I). "Earnings season is now underway, and so far, expectations are for a 3% contraction in the growth rate. The next two quarters show the same and are both drifting lower. It suggests that 2023 will be a flat-to-down year".

27. Earnings estimate progression (II). "Ex-energy looks like 1% growth (8% for the index) for 2022. The estimate for 2023 is at 0.9% and falling. The estimate for 2024 is 10.5% and rising. If correct, it would be a soft landing for earnings. But the current trend is clearly down".

28. Earnings moves. And finally, “the average S&P500 stock has moved +/-4.3% on earnings QTD”.

Thanks for reading!