Daily Chartbook #136

Welcome back to Daily Chartbook: macro market charts, data, and insights pulled from various sources around the Internet by a solo retail investor.

1. Industrial cycles. "In the eight cycles since 1993, the average period of [global industrial] growth has been ~10.3 quarters, and the average downcycle has lasted ~5.3 quarters — which would take us into 2024, if this downcycle is ‘average'".

2. Balance of Trade. "Trade deficit widened $6.4bn to $67.4bn in Dec as imports rebounded 1.3% & exports fell 0.9%".

3. US-China. "Trade in goods between the US and China climbed to a record in 2022...Total merchandise trade between the two countries rose to $690.6 billion".

4. Bad, but also good. "...companies' mentions of better business conditions (ratio of mentions of "better" or "stronger" vs. "worse" or "weaker") sharply fell, tracking below the COVID low. However, mentions of optimism jumped, likely driven by China reopening".

5. Used autos. "Used car prices officially increased 2.5% in January. The *largest* month-over-month percentage increase since end of 2021".

6. Extra savings. "Americans have spent down ~35% of the extra savings they accumulated during the pandemic as of Jan...Goldman forecasts that they'll exhaust 65% of that money by end of year".

7. Q1 GDP. "The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter of 2023 is 2.1 percent on February 7, up from 0.7 percent on February 1".

8. Credit growth. "Latest Fed's Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey shows banks kept tightening credit standards for all firms. The recent change in credit conditions suggests that credit growth should normalize downward and could even turn negative in 2H23".

9. Credit standards vs. credit spreads. "Tighter lending standards point to upside risk for credit spreads".

10. IPOs. "US IPOs are set to have their biggest week since October".

11. Inflation pricing. "Markets are priced for an inflation outcome in 2023 that is more than 100bp below the Fed’s latest projections".

12. 10/2. "This inversion is now plainly the most significant since the early 1980s — which makes sense because inflation has not been so high, and neither has the Fed had to react so aggressively".

13. Bond positioning. "Positioning has shifted somewhat more bearish in recent weeks".

14. Dollar bears. "Asset managers have been boosting their bets against the US dollar".

15. Investor flows. "Investors have started to jump back into equities as small-, mid-, and large-cap funds had inflows totaling $2.6 billion last week; international funds still made up 45% of inflows on rolling 1-month basis, while corporate bond funds made up 21%".

16. Average sentiment. "Chart shows average percentile of 16 different sentiment indicators. Have to go back to late 2021 to find the same 'not so bearish' sentiment".

17. Exposure plans. "We haven't seen such a low reading when it comes to people wanting to increase equity exposure".

18. Macro HF beta. "Macro hedge fund beta to equities has seen the biggest rise in almost 2 years. From short to long".

19. Buybacks. "Corp. client buybacks as a % of S&P 500 mkt. cap (0.034%) are tracking just below records we saw in 2019 and 2022 at this time (0.036%)".

20. Breadth. "Only 13% of industries have a rising 200-day moving average. 45% seems to be the key number".

21. No new highs streak. "Feels like a long way back to top for S&P 500, but current streak of not reaching prior high isn't at all unusual ... still much shorter than bear markets associated with tech bust and GFC recessions".

22. Seasonality. "February weaker but can rally in Presidential Cycle Year 3".

23. EPS forecast. "We see no recession ahead in the broad economy—or in earnings—but a soft landing. .. We are currently estimating that S&P 500 operating earnings will be up 4.7% this year to $225 per share and 11.1% next year to $250".

24. Forward EPS growth. "Forward EPS growth is now negative for just the fifth time since 2000; history shows price downside is in front of us, not behind us".

25. Forward EPS peaks. "Looking at S&P 500 forward EPS peaks in 2000, 2007, and 2020, they all occurred when Fed was either at terminal rate or already cutting rates … this time, peak in estimates occurred when Fed was still in early phase of rate-hiking cycle".

26. Valuation expansion. "The recent run in the market has been entirely a function of valuation expansion (given negative earnings growth).  Real yields suggest lower valuations".

27. Valuation perspective. Last week's surge "left the S&P 500 trading at 18.3x forward earnings, and those forward earnings are being revised down".

28. Earnings estimate progression (I). "With 251 companies reporting, 70% are beating estimates by an average of 1.32%. Sounds good, but fewer are outperforming than is average. And the incoming waves of Q1 and Q2 estimates are dropping hard".

29. Earnings estimate progression (II). And finally, “the 2023 growth estimate has now flipped into negative territory (-1.1%). This will likely get worse before it gets better. Typically, the estimate comes down by around 800 bps during the year, so that implies earnings growth of around -5% for 2023”.

Thanks for reading!