Daily Chartbook #144

Welcome back to Daily Chartbook: macro market charts, data, and insights pulled from various sources around the Internet by a solo retail investor.

Administrative note: Daily Chartbook will be off Monday, February 20.

1. NAR membership. "Number of Realtors falling for first time in over decade".

2. Supply chain pressure. "Supply-chain pressure has eased since the acute problems of late 2021, but it is still at levels that ensure continued upward stress on input prices".

3. Used cars. "Wholesale used-vehicle prices (on a mix-, mileage-, and seasonally adjusted basis) increased 4.1% from January in the first 15 days of February. This was the largest February increase since 2009’s full-month 4.4% gain".

4. Leading Economic Indicator (I). The Conference Boards' "LEI is showing no signs at all of 'recovering', hitting its lowest since Feb 2021".

5. Leading Economic Indicator (II). "On a year-over-year basis, the LEI is down 6.03% (a smidge better than the revised 6.22% decline in Dec) - but still close to its biggest YoY drop since 2008 (Lehman) outside of the COVID lockdown-enforced collapse".

6. Hawkish shift. "The global tightening wave that was supposed to have peaked is instead gathering strength".

7. Broad inversions. "Most yield curves in the U.S. and around the world are inverted".

8. Risk appetite. "Risk appetite has picked up materially since the beginning of the year".

9. OPEX. $1.8 trillion of options notional expired today.

10. VIX calls. "Open interest in VIX calls hit the highest level since 2019 this week".

11. Vol control. "Vol control funds have loaded up on equities lately and have been one of the size buyers. Vol down, they buy stuff, vol up, they must sell stuff".

12. Account margin decline. "More unwinding to come, IMO. Still too much of a speculative instinct in this market".

13. Treasuries flows. "Big inflow to Treasuries… best start to year since ‘04".

14. Debt flows. "3rd largest week of private client bond purchases ever".

15. First to worst. "Nice look at the total reversal in ETF returns from 2022 to 2023. That said, the stuff popping off now that was in doghouse last year is seeing outflows and so this could be one big head fake".

16. Tech flows. "Tech funds saw their largest outflow since September 2022".

17. Retail buyers. "Last month, retail investors poured on average $1.51bn/day into the US markets, the highest amount on record".

18. Closing levels. "Relative to the open, the S&P 500's average high-low range recently hit its widest level since 2009".

19. S&P breadth. "In the past four months, there have been 20 days when more than 80% of stocks within the S&P 500 advanced".

20. Global valuations. 12-month forward P/E multiple ranges over a 20-year timeline.

21. NDX vs. Fwd EPS. "NASDAQ 100’s selloffs from end of 2021 into middle of 2022 were consistent with increase in forward EPS (orange); yet now, forward EPS have fallen considerably as index has attempted to claw back losses".

22. Equity valuation. "Neither the earnings outlook nor the rate structure supports a P/E north of 16x, which tells me the market likely has some backing and filling to do in the coming months".

23. Earnings quality. "Earnings quality is suffering amid the corporate profit recession. In 4Q, the spread between adjusted and unadjusted earnings is about 25.4% vs. 16% for the 14-year average".

24. Q4 earnings (I). With 82% of the S&P 500 reported, "68% have reported actual EPS above estimates, which is below the percentage of 69% at the end of last week, below the 5-year average of 77%, and below the 10-year average of 73%".

25. Q4 earnings (II). "65% of S&P 500 companies have reported actual revenues above estimates, which is below the 5-year average of 69%, but above the 10-year average of 63%".

26. Q4 earnings (III). "The blended earnings decline for the fourth quarter is -4.7% today, compared to an earnings decline of -5.0% last week and an earnings decline of -3.3% at the end of the fourth quarter".

27. Q4 earnings (IV). "The blended revenue growth rate for the fourth quarter is 5.1% today, compared to a revenue growth rate of 4.6% last week and a revenue growth rate of 3.9% at the end of the fourth quarter".

28. EPS outlook (I). And finally, "while consensus forward EPS estimates have come down…"

29. EPS outlook (II). "...they still imply growth".

Have a great weekend!