Daily Chartbook #145

Welcome back to Daily Chartbook: macro market charts, data, and insights pulled from various sources around the Internet by a solo retail investor.

1. Existing home sales (I). "US Existing Home Sales fell for the 12th consecutive month to their lowest level since October 2010 . The 37% year-over-year decline was the largest on record".

2. Existing home sales (II). "The median existing home sale price is down 13% from its peak. After the last housing bubble top, prices fell 33%".

3. Rent price growth. "U.S. single-family rental price growth closed out 2022 at about half of what it was one year ago...However, while rent growth has been slowing, it still rose at more than double the pre-pandemic rate".

4. Global freight. "After plunging by 84% from peak, rate to ship 40-foot container from Shanghai to Los Angeles looks to have stabilized for now".

5. Flash PMI (I). Headline composite output increased sharply. 

6. Flash PMI (II). Services and manufacturing PMIs rose to 8- and 4-month highs, respectively. The latter remains in contraction.

7. Recession fears. "Looking at transcripts of earnings calls show that banks remain more worried about a recession than other sectors in the S&P500".

8. Public debt. "CBO projects US govt debt to rise >$21 trillion next 10 years = $5.2 billion every day or $218 million every hour…".

9. Money supply. "In the entire published history of monetary aggregates (since 1959), there has never been an M2 drop as big as what we are experiencing".

10. IG bond flows. "A total of $19bn has poured into funds which buy investment grade corporate debt around the world since the start of 2023, the most ever at this point in the year".

11. Average recommended allocation (I). To bonds.

12. Average recommended allocation (II). To cash.

13. Adding risk. "Cash levels are moving lower and investors are adding to risk, in February higher than normal".

14. BTC vs. SPX. "A 40-day correlation between Bitcoin and the S&P 500 has slid below 0.3 to the lowest since 2021 from a May record above 0.8".

15. Sentiment indicator. Goldman's positioning indicator has moved up to positive territory.

16. Equity positioning (I). "Systematics have continued to increase exposure to equities, while discretionary are small down compared to last week".

17. Equity positioning (II). Consolidated equity positoning has moved up close to the netural zone.

18. Equity positioning (III). CTA exposure to equities is at its highest in ~2 years.

19. Fund flows. "Investors taking a break from piling into international assets ... global funds still had inflows last week, but sharper increase was in government bond funds ... equities yet to come back as a favorite".

20. US breadth. "Domestic breadth is still in fine shape. 7 consecutive weeks of new highs > new lows is longest stretch since Aug 2021".

21. Growth vs. value. "Growth factor exposure has risen in 2023, despite being in an end cycle environment where valuations in growth remain stretched by most measures".

22. Guidance (I). "Y23 earnings guidance adjustments are shaping up to be nearly the worst since the GFC".

23. Guidance (II). "Meanwhile, sales guidance adjustments are second best (going back as far as we have data). To us, this indicates that companies are still able to chase revenue, either through investment in their businesses or raising prices".

24. Sales growth. "Most US sectors have seen much higher sales growth during the last 3 years than in the 15 years before COVID".

25. Profit margins. "The net profit margin of S&P 500 companies has fallen to 11.3% for 4q--the 6th consecutive quarterly decline from the peak of 13% in 2021".

26. EPS trend. "Trailing 12m EPS is running 1 std dev above its long-term trend. Historically, mean reversion occurred more often than not from these levels--coming back to trend over the next year. The trend line is roughly 10-15% lower than this".

27. EPS surprise. Companies have been reporting smaller EPS surprises for 7 quarters.

28. Death zone. "The sharp rally this year has left stocks the most expensive since 2007 by the measure of equity risk premium, which has entered a level MS strategists call the 'death zone.'".

29. Highs vs. lows. And finally, “new lows > new highs today for the first time this year. That puts 2023 in 11th place over the past decade for consecutive days of new highs > new lows to start a year”.

Thanks for reading!