Daily Chartbook #153

Welcome back to Daily Chartbook: macro market charts, data, and insights pulled from various sources around the Internet by a solo retail investor.

1. Global food prices. "A United Nations’ index of food-commodity costs eased 0.6% in February, down for an 11th month in the longest run of losses in data going back three decades."

2. Container rates. "The price of transporting a container from China to the US is basically back at pre-pandemic levels, and this is boosting manufacturing production and putting downward pressure on goods inflation."

3. Heavy truck sales. "Usually, heavy truck sales decline sharply prior to a recession.   Sales were solid in February."

4. Long-term inflation. "Market pricing implies a 36% chance of headline CPI inflation exceeding 3% over the next 5 years."

5. Loan willingness. "Not only more expensive to borrow - much harder too."

6. Loan demand. "It's not just that lending standards have tightened; loan demand has cooled."

7. Q1 GDP. "Data received since our update last Friday lowered our 1Q tracking estimate from 1.3% q/q saar to 0.9% q/q saar."

8. Consumer spending. "The latest BAC card spending data suggest that the acceleration in consumer spending might have been more short-lived than we were expecting. Card spending per household slowed to 1.3% y/y in the week ending Feb 25."

9. US sector PMI. "Three out of seven US sectors recorded higher levels of business activity. Technology leads the way…Financials remains the weakest performing area."

10. US services PMI. "Activity returns to expansion, albeit at only a slight pace. Employment rises at fastest rate since September 2022. Selling price inflation accelerates despite softer rise in costs."

11. US composite PMI. The output index "posted 50.1 in February, up from 46.8 in January. The latest data signaled an end to a seven-month sequence of contraction."

12. ISM services PMI (I). "February ISM Services at 55.1 vs. 54.5 est. & 55.2 prior; new orders up to 62.6; prices down to 65.6; business activity fell to 56.3 … notably, employment moved up to 54 and supplier deliveries is only component in contraction."

13. ISM services PMI (II). "Prices just came in with lowest price acceleration in more than two-years, going back to January 2021."

14. Demand volume vs. supply. "Even though trends have improved, S&P Volume Supply is now > Demand…In bull markets, demand volume typically stays between 52-56% of total."

15. Retail options. "Retail is back, but the exuberant call options frenzy is long gone, and we are far from those peak mania levels."

16. Volmageddon 2.0. 0DTE contracts have accounted for more than 40% of the S&P 500's total options volume for 3 straight quarters.

17. ERP. "Equity risk premiums sit near a 15- year low. It is a significant risk for investors, with our S&P 500 Earnings Indicator forecasts negative EPS growth in 2023."

18. Asset class flows. "Money market funds continue winning the inflows game."

19. Equity funds flows. "Equity funds on track for $107bn inflows in 2023."

20. Fear & Greed. "From extreme greed, to greed, to neutral in a relatively short time period."

21. Contra Cramer. "Day One ETF volume for Inverse Cramer vs Long Cramer."

22. Sector cash flows. "Table shows 12 month change in operating cashflow by sector."

23. HY sector performance. "Sector performance in HY since November inflection.  The performance of cyclically exposed sectors stands out."

24. Top 10 earnings yield. "After re-testing the valuations from the Tech Bubble peak, the top 10 largest US stocks are still historically expensive."

25. Q1 EPS change. "10 of the 11 sectors witnessed a decrease in their bottom-up EPS estimate for Q1 2023 from December 31 to February 28."

26. CY23 EPS change. "10 sectors witnessed a decrease in their bottom-up EPS estimate for CY 2023 from December 31 to February 28."

27. Tech EPS. "7 of 13 Technology sub-groups are seeing flattening to upward moves in 2023 EPS."

28. Profit margins. "Profit margins are back to pre-COVID levels."

29. Margin compression. And finally, “margin compression is now clear in more than 40% of U.S. companies within the $SPX.”

Have a great weekend!