Daily Chartbook #155

Welcome back to Daily Chartbook: macro market charts, data, and insights pulled from various sources around the Internet by a solo retail investor.

1. Global supply chain. The NY Fed's Global Supply Chain index fell to a negative reading in February for the first time since August 2019.

2. Used cars. "Wholesale used vehicle prices (mix, mileage & seasonally adjusted) increased 4.3% MoM and -7% YoY in February. MoM increase was the largest increase for February since 2009."

3. Consumer credit. "In January, consumer credit rose just $14.8BN, a modest increase from last month's downward revised $10.7BN, but a huge miss to the median consensus estimate of $25.4BN."

4. Consumer outlook. "Consumers’ confidence in the economy and their own household finances continues to improve .. 45% (vs. 41% last month) of respondents expect their situation to get better, which is the most optimistic reading for that metric since summer 2021."

5. Gloomy consumers. "Share of respondents who expect their personal financial situation to get better in the next 12 months at lowest on record in monthly survey."

6. Student loans. "Economists and market participants are underestimating the headwinds that are going to be created by borrowers having to start paying off student loans once again."

7. Q1 GDP. The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow model estimate for Q1 GDP growth is now 2%, down from 2.3% on March 3.

8. Unemployment rate changes. "Given discussion in Powell’s hearing about 1% increase in unemployment rate, here are rolling 12-month changes (orange) in unemployment rate back to 1940s, with recessions."

9. FOMC odds. "Powell just finished, and here is the updated probability that the Fed will hike 50 next week."

10. Deep inversion. "The 2yr/10yr yield curve is now 100 basis points inverted, for the first time since September 1981."

11. US02Y. "The 2-year Treasury note yield surpasses 5% for the first time in 15 years."

12. Junk bond bears. "$HYG short interest currently 52%, close to record highs."

13. Treasury shorts. "Treasury market bearish bets are hitting new extremes."

14. Credit/equities spread. "The spread between BBB rated dollar-denominated corporate debt and the earnings available on the S&P 500 Index of stocks is now above zero for the first time since the global financial crisis."

15. Crude oil optimism. "Managed Money short % reflecting extreme optimism from HF and CTAs. Now at levels last observed in 2018."

16. SPX correlations. "Correlations have continued to move lower for S&P 500 members as market has broadly advanced over past few months."

17. Retail vs. 0DTE. "Retail participation in options trading has moved lower, while 0DTE options as total percentage of volume has risen during the same time."

18. Risk on/off. "Sentiment today is more bearish than it was 1 month and 3 months ago."

19. Flight to safety. "Risky vs. safe assets fund flows. 4 weeks rolling flows, USD bn."

20. Investor ETF flows. "Safety still a dominant theme as government and aggregate bond funds are making up 2/3 of past month's ETF inflows ... investments grade corporate ETFs also saw a bump in interest (along with TIPS)."

21. Discretionary vs. systematic positioning. "Systematic equity positioning is on the rise as discretionary is rather flat recently."

22. CTAs equity exposure. "They shaved off some during the move lower, but overall levels are rather long these days."

23. Tech insiders. "Tech company insiders buying picks up while insider selling remains very low."

24. Exposure plans. New low in the share of respondents with plans to increase equity exposure.

25. Foreign revenues. Companies with significant foreign revenue exposure are outperforming.

26. Bottom 450 vs. top 50. "Bottom 450 S&P stocks remain cheap vs. top 50 stocks."

27. Fwd P/E expansion (I). "Current multiple expansion in US stocks seem premature as P/Es of both the tech-heavy cohort known as FAAMG as well as the non-FAAMG stocks have returned to the highs reached when the current bear market began. This expansion has not come from falling earnings."

28. Fwd P/E expansion (II). "Rolling 60d change in forward P/E for largest/most popular growth stocks has been quite something ... gain of nearly 9 points in multiple is among most aggressive move over past handful of years."

29. Sector EPS estimates vs. performance. And finally, “sectors where analysts are cutting 2023 earnings estimates more than the S&P 500 as whole are underperforming those where estimates have proven more resilient.”

Thanks for reading!