Daily Chartbook #156

Welcome back to Daily Chartbook: the day’s best charts & insights, curated.

1. US petroleum inventory monitor. "Total commercial petroleum stocks rose 1.9 MMbbl. BUT crude stocks *fell* by 1.7 MMbbl for the first time this year."

2. Mortgage demand. "The seasonally adjusted Mortgage Purchase Application Index rises 6.6% to 154.4. On a year-over-year basis, total purchase apps are down 42.3%."

3. Supply chain metrics. "Our aggregate of most-watched supply chain metrics declined in February."

4. Trade deficit. "The trade gap in goods and services increased 1.6% to $68.3 billion in January...The value of imports increased 3% to $325.8 billion, while exports climbed to $257.5 billion."

5. National Financial Conditions Index. The NFCI "was unchanged at –0.38 in the week ending March 3, suggesting steady financial conditions."

6. Revolving credit. "Revolving credit growth +15.6% year/year in January, near highest rate since mid-1990s."

7. Tech layoffs. "Tech layoffs are 50% of total layoff announcements, by far the biggest share ever. .. Non-tech is rising from very low levels but not yet close to stressful levels."

8. CPI nowcast. "CPI Nowcast model from [Cleveland Fed] currently expecting headline inflation rate of +6.2% year/year (economists’ consensus right now is +6%)."

9. ADP employment. "February ADP payrolls +242k vs. +200k est. & +119k prior (rev up from +106k)  … small businesses -61k; medium +148k; large +160k … goods-producing +52k; service-producing +190k."

10. JOLTs (I). Job openings in the US totaled 10.824 million for "the fifth consecutive beat of expectations in the series, and an unprecedented 27 of the past 29 prints."

11. JOLTs (II). "Some moderation in quits, but overall rate and private sector rate still above pre-pandemic level. Overall rate still 7.5% above 2019 average."

12. JOLTs (III). "The level of quits in the private sector declined by 193,000; however, this was concentrated in one industry: professional and business services, where quits sank by 221,000."

13. JOLTs (IV). "Layoffs and discharges in Jan. 3rd biggest rise in 20 years ex-pandemic."

14. Sector job postings. "We're really starting to see a divergence in where job postings are falling in the US with sales."

15. NFP. "The consensus expects nonfarm payrolls on Friday to come in at 225,000, but recent readings for the employment components of ISM suggest there are some upside risks to that forecast."

16. Q1 GDP. The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow model estimate for Q1 GDP growth jumped to 2.6% from 2.0% yesterday driven by consumer spending (PCE).

17. Treasury yields vs. USD. "The last time Treasury yields were at these levels, the US Dollar index was 5-10% higher than current levels. Not saying to expect convergence of the two, but the relationship was pretty tight in 2021 & 2022 so the gap is notable."

18. Global breadth vs. USD. "Dollar is at its highest level since December.  % of global markets above their 50-day average is at its lowest since October."

19. Put/call ratio. Yesterday's "index put/call ratio .80. Lowest since early March 2020."

20. Equity allocation. "Equity allocation slipped 5ppt YoY to the lowest level in our [Global Wealth & Investment Management Survey] history."

21. Bonds > stocks. "Bonds over stocks is firmly consensus."

22. Plans for excess cash. "Not much interest in buying stocks with excess cash."

23. Falling sentiment. "Morgan Stanley's 'Market Sentiment Indicator' (MSI) is negative and continues to fall."

24. Positioning levels (I). Investor positioning at the gross level has increased aggressively while net exposure remains tight.

25. Positioning levels (II). "The velocity and magnitude of this re-gross is only rivaled by the post covid wash-out…highlight this time around, the re-grossing occurred with the SPX effectively flat over the last 50days."

26. Beta exposure. "Active managers are running lowest beta exposure since the GFC."

27. Mega cap exposure. "One way traffic over the past years."

28. Tech vs. S&P. And finally, “tech’s relative premium to the rest of the S&P 500 is once again nearing its pandemic bubble peak.”

Thanks for reading!