Daily Chartbook #16

Welcome to PAV Chartbook: market charts, data, research, and insights pulled from various sources around the Internet by a solo retail investor.

1. EIA STEO. The US Energy Information Administration’s Short-Term Energy Outlook has US oil prices falling to ~$85 a barrel in 2023.

2. Lower prices at the pump. Here’s how gas prices will be impacted.

3. Autos impact (I). Vehicle prices have had an outsized impact on core inflation.

4. Auto impact (II). Car price growth is rolling over though.

5. Ice cream prices. In case you were wondering, ice cream is not exempt from inflation.

6. CPI estimates (I). With inflation numbers coming out Thursday, here are some estimates. Wells Fargo first (headline CPI).

7. CPI estimates (II). Morgan Stanley (headline and core CPI).

8. CPI estimates (III). Nomura (core CPI).

9. Headline vs. Core CPI. The “spread between headline and core inflation of 3.2 percentage points in June was the widest since 1974”.

10. Recession probabilities according to asset prices. The probability based on equity prices (S&P 500) was 91% on June 16.

11. IRA impact (I). The potential impact of the Inflation Reduction Act.

12. IRA impact (II). Another breakdown of the bill’s potential impact.

13. Productivity down & Labor Costs up. Non-farm productivity (blue) fell by 4.6% in Q2 (markets expected -4.7%). Unit labor costs (orange) jumped by 10.8% (markets expected +9.5%).

14. Past performance is not indicative… (I). “The only 3 times when productivity was approaching this negative was during the high inflation periods of 1974, 1980 and 1982. All three times ended in recession. This read here being the most negative productivity reading in the history of this chart.”

15. Past performance is not indicative… (II). “Every time unit labor costs exceeded 7% yoy a recession has ensued. Current read: 8.9%”.

16. Small Business. Small business optimism curled up. So did the outlook for business conditions, though the measure remains very down. “Plans for higher compensation & raising prices dipped, alongside small dip in capex expectations”.

17. The worst problem. For small businesses, it’s still inflation: “37% of small business owners reported that inflation was their single most important problem in operating their business, an increase of three points from June and the highest level since the 4th quarter of 1979.”

18. Shifting to equities. Here’s what BoA customers were buying (tech) and selling (health care) last week.

19. Big household flows. “Households bought $5.9tn in equities over the past 2 years (through end 1Q22), with inflows recorded in every quarter since Covid. Historically, the past three major market lows have occurred 1-2 quarters after substantial household investor selling”.

20. ESG flows. Flows into “Environmental, social, and corporate governance” have fallen off a cliff.

21. Past drawdowns. Here’s how the current decline stacks up against previous recession drawdowns. The median is -24%.

22. Reminder: the stock market =/= the economy. Stock market performance (219%), economic growth (28%), and revenue growth (67%) since 2007.

23. Not the year for bonds. “The US bond market is on pace for its worst year in history with a loss of 8.7%.”

24. World stocks. Three out of four world stocks are above their 50-day moving averages—the highest total since February.

25. S&P Global Investment Manager Index (I). To round us out, here are a few updates from global investment managers. “What’s driving the market in the near term?”

26. S&P Global Investment Manager Index (II). Which sectors are most (healthcare) and least (consumer discretionary) favored for August?

27. S&P Global Investment Manager Index (III). Risk appetite has increased but remains low. Near-term market performance has worsened.

28. S&P Global Investment Manager Index (IV). And finally, “Given the recent US earnings results, will you be revising your overall expectations for next quarter?”. Yup.