Daily Chartbook #17

Welcome back to PAV Chartbook: market charts, data, research, and insights pulled from various sources around the Internet by a solo retail investor.

1. Global supply chain (I). Delivery times are improving around the world.

2. Global supply chain (II). Pressures are easing.

3. Global supply chain (III). Container freight rates are down across all major routes.

4. US supply chain (I). “The Oxford Economics Supply Chain Stress Index eased modestly last month.”

5. US supply chain (II). “The share of US factories reporting declining delivery times is rising”.

6. Global food prices. The International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) World Fertilizer Index is down “10% from its recent peak” which should offer relief from near-record high food prices.

7. Small business jobs. From yesterday’s Small Business Optimism Index—job openings (blue) are still difficult to fill while hiring plans (orange) have declined sharply.

8. Global tightening. More central banks than ever are lifting interest rates.

9. CPI unch. The month-to-month inflation rate remain unchanged in July.

10. CPI & Core CPI. Year-over-year headline inflation (blue) was 8.5% in July. Core inflation (orange), which excludes food and energy, increased 0.3% (less than expected) to 5.9% year-over-year.

11. Core CPI decline streak. Year-over-year core inflation growth has declined for 4 consecutive months.

12. June vs. July CPI. Here’s a side-by-side breakdown of year-over-year growth for contributors to inflation.

13. Topline contributors. Year-over-year growth for topline contributors.

14. Topline contributors (II). The same, but month-over-month. Note energy…

15. Gas prices. CPI gas prices experienced their largest monthly drop since April 2020.

16. CPI categories. Here’s a more detailed look at July’s price changes.

17. CPI subcomponents. Year-over-year increases in the top 5 subcomponent contributors to inflation.

18. Atlanta Fed. After the cool inflation print, the GDPNow forecast is now predicting 2.45% GDP growth in Q3.

19. Latin American CPI. Inflation is forecasted to rise throughout Latin America (except Brazil).

20. Fed odds shift. The market is now placing a greater chance on a 50 bps hike in September than 75 bps.

21. Gold (I). “Gold ETFs have disconnected from recession risks”.

22. Gold (II). Looking at the past, gold “rallied during rate hikes under a Fed focused on growth and fell under a Fed focused on reducing inflation”.

23. Resilient 2023 margins? Analysts have revised margin expectations down to still-record levels.

24. Investing is hard. “Only 18% of large-cap managers beat their benchmark over the past 12 months.”

25. The popular-stocks rally. Technology and consumer discretionary stocks have been in the driver’s seat since mid-June.

26. Meme stocks are back? Speaking of popular stocks, and have been acting like meme stocks again recently. In fact, “retail trader-favored stocks are having their best quarter since the original meme frenzy in 1Q21”.

27. Dividends…anyone? Nobody is interested in dividends right now.

28. Bulls vs. Bears. Investor Intelligence “bulls have risen for five weeks in a row and are at their highest level since the first week of the year. Bulls and bears have completely flipped since the June lows”.

29. Retail army. And finally, retail investors have been buying stocks aggressively, spending $3.4 billion on equities over the past week.