Daily Chartbook #180

Welcome back to Daily Chartbook: the day’s best charts & insights, curated.

1. US petroleum inventories. "Total commercial petroleum stocks rose 8.4 MMbpd w/w following 3 large draws, but that was mostly "other" liquids: Crude: +0.6 MMbbl,Gasoline: -0.3 MMbbl, Distillate: -0.6 MMbbl , "Other": +8.1 MMbbl."

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2. SPR. "After a pause over the last 3 months, the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve is being tapped again. Down 1.6 million barrels over the last week to the lowest levels since 1983."

3. Mortgage demand. "Signs of improvement in housing. Mortgage purchase applications rose 7.8% for the week ending April 7, the fifth increase in the last six weeks. Prices appear to have bottomed too with the average loan size on purchase loans rising steadily all year."

4. Retail spending. "Retail spending slowed sharply in the 2nd half of March, following strength early in the year."

5. Card spending (I). "Bank of America credit and debit card spending per household moderated further in March, to 0.1% year-over-year (YoY), the slowest pace since February 2021. Sequentially, card spending per household fell 1.5% month- over-month (MoM), seasonally adjusted."

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6. Card spending (II). "The good news is that consumers still have financial buffers as suggested by lower credit card utilization rates compared to 2019."

7. Consumer health (I). "The GS 'US Consumer Health Indicator' stands close to percentile 70."

8. Consumer health (II). US household leverage—the ratio of liabilities to net wealth—remains at healthy levels.

9. CPI (I). Headline inflation slowed for its 5th straight month to 5% YoY (vs. 5.2% expected). For the month, a +0.6% rise in shelter more than offset a -3.5% drop in energy prices for an overall 0.1% increase in March prices (vs. 0.2% expected).

10. CPI (II). "Headline CPI down on a year/year basis for the 9th straight month.  That hasn't happened in more than 90 years."

11. CPI (III). Driven by increases in transportation services and shelter costs, core inflation rose 0.4%in March (in line) and 5.6% YoY (in line).

12. CPI (IV). Closely watched by the Fed, "Supercore CPI (Core Services ex Rent of primary residence and Owners Equivalent Rent) was 0.4%, down from 0.5%."

13. Real wages. "Inflation adjusted wages are down for a record 24th consecutive month."

14. I-bonds. "Just a few months ago, [I-bonds] offered an historic 9.62% rate. Now that figure is expected to fall to 3.8%, putting the return closer to what you can get on certificates of deposit, high-yield savings accounts and money-market funds."

15. Soft commodities. "There is always a bull market somewhere - since the start of 2023, it is definitely in the SOFT commodity sector."

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16. Rates volatility. "The growth impact of tighter lending standards, another form of financial conditions tightening, reduces the risk of more aggressive rate hikes, especially with inflation normalising further."

17. Index vs. stocks. "Single stock vol vs index vol has sharply higher recently. The ratio sits at almost year highs."

18. Investor sentiment. "This week’s II survey shows the most bulls and fewest bears since Jan 2022. Before rushing to fade the crowd, remember that all the net gains in the S&P 500 since 2015 have come with the II bull-bear spread above 18%."

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19. Equity flows. "Clients sold US equities of all sizes last week, pulling roughly $2.3B. Selling was pronounced among institutional, retail, & hedge funds clients."

20. Pre-earning rally. US equities have enjoyed “the biggest pre-earnings rally since early 2009, as the S&P 500 jumped almost 6% in the month through Friday even as first-quarter profits are forecast to drop 8%."

21. Unprofitable tech. "US unprofitable tech index is not participating in tech rally this year."

22. Expensive tech. "Global tech is again trading 1 standard deviation expensive."

23. Expensive FAANG. "FAANG stocks have re-rated sharply in the last few months, back to outright expensive."

24. Earnings estimates (I). "Analysts continue to downgrade their S&P 500 earnings estimates for 2023...Here are the estimates by quarter."

25. Earnings estimates (II). "S&P 500 consensus bottom up NTM estimates have been revised down 1.8% year-to-date."

26. Earnings estimates (III). And finally, “for 2023, the consensus earnings-per-share estimate for the S&P 500 is $216, down $2 from 2022. The recovery for 2024 is expected to be swift, gaining $25 to $243. If the US economy is headed toward a recession later this year, those estimates are likely too optimistic.”

Thanks for reading!