Daily Chartbook #186

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1. Refining capacity. Global net refining capacity is set to increase at the fastest pace in 45 years in 2023-24.

2. Refining margins. "US oil refining margins have fallen about 50% from their all-time high set in mid-2022, but still remain well above historical levels."

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3. Existing home sales (I). Sales declined 2.4% in March (vs. -1.8% expected) for the "13th monthly decline in the last 14 months and leaves existing home sales down around 22% YoY."

4. Existing home sales (II). "The median selling price of a previously owned home fell 0.9% from a year earlier to $375,700 in March - the largest decline since January 2012."

5. Global freight. "The Drewry composite global container freight index has risen 3.8% to $1773/40ft box, its first weekly increase in 14 months. Driven by 11% and 12% increases on the China to LA and NY routes. The cross Atlantic routes remain under pressure but remains above their l/t avg."

6. OECD GDPs. "OECD estimates for GDP growth put the US below 2%. This is important as it requires roughly 2% GDP growth just to absorb new entrants into the workforce, but not enough growth to create prosperity.

7. Food prices. "Global food prices have fallen by nearly 21% from their all-time high per UN Food and Agriculture Index … drawdown not worst seen in prior recessions, though."

8. Stagflation. "Investors expect to see stagflation in the next 12 months."

9. Household balance sheets. "US households are in excellent shape, the ratio of liabilities to net wealth has declined 50% since the 2008 financial crisis, and household leverage is currently at levels last seen in the early 1980s."

10. Tax receipts. "Treasury Tax Receipts are now down 29% month-to-date relative to last year."

11. Redbook. "Weekly retail sales per [Redbook] have eased to +1.1% year/year, softest gain since February 2021."

12. Philly manufacturing (I). Manufacturing activity declined in April for the 8th straight month of contraction. New orders and shipments both increased but remain negative.

13. Philly manufacturing (II). Prices paid dropped for the 2nd straight month to 8.2 (vs. 28 expected) while prices received turned negative for the first time since May 2020.

14. Jobless claims (I). "Initial claims...rose 5,000 to 245,000, 12.9% higher YoY...4 week moving average (red) declined -250 to 239,750, 10.6% higher than 1 year ago. This is the 4th week in a row that the YoY% change has been above 10%, but it has not yet crossed the 12.5% threshold that historically has been a recession warning."

15. Jobless claims (II). "Continuing jobless claims came in at 1.865m for the week of Apr 7, above the est of 1.825m. These are now in-line with pre-pandemic levels and where they were before the Fed retired transitory in Nov 2021."

16. Leading Economic Indicator (I). "-1.2% in March 2023...-8.8% annualized over last 6-months...further evidence that a forward looking perspective shows a notable economic cooling."

17. Leading Economic Indicator (II). "In year/year % change terms, LEI from The Conference Board fell 7.8% in March … now firmly in recession territory and in fact, during recessions in early 1970s and early 1980s, annual decline never got this negative."

18. Deposit rates vs. other options. "Gap between banks' deposit rates and money market fund rates remains extremely wide, with former sitting at 0.5% and latter >4.5%."

19. Sidelined cash. "BCA shows how cash on the sidelines isn't that elevated when measured as a % of total equity and bond market value."

20. Bond downgrades. "In 1Q23, $11.4 billion of bonds were downgraded to high yield status, which is about 60% of 2022’s full-year total per Barclays … full-year volume on pace to be highest since 2020; notably, bank also expects pickup in number of “rising stars” (companies upgraded to IG)."

21. Junk vs. VIX. "Junk bond yields are materially diverging from overall equity volatility, which appears to be unreasonably suppressed. To put this into perspective, the last time junk bonds yielded near the current levels, the VIX was hovering around 50."

22. Crypto liquidations. "Yesterday was the biggest long liquidation event in crypto this year."

23. Active managers. The NAAIM Exposure Index moved up to 78.2 from 58.7 last week.

24. AAII sentiment. "Latest AAII sentiment reading shows basically no change for bulls and bears."

25. Cumulative fund flows. "Investors continue to put their money into money market funds."

26. Aggregate US futures. "Asset managers and leveraged funds remain cautious on stocks."

27. CTAs vs. SPX. CTA positioning in the S&P 500 has surged.

28. SPX breadth. "After cycling from < than 18% of NYSE stocks above their 200-DMA to > than 50% above 200-DMA, S&P 500 has NEVER been lower a year later."

29. Sector breadth. "100d MA breadth not even remotely close to what we saw in early February, and this goes for basically every sector (aside from Staples)."

30. SPX vs. NDX breadth. And finally, “seeing stronger short-term breadth in S&P 500 compared to the Nasdaq Composite. Nearly 80% of large cap stocks are above their 20-day MA vs. 55% for the Composite. This is one of the largest differences since November.”

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