Daily Chartbook #191

Welcome back to Daily Chartbook: the day’s best charts & insights, curated.

1. Pending home sales. "Pending home sales tumbled 5.2% MoM, dragging the YoY sales down 23.26%."

2. Rent prices (I). "Our national rent index increased by 0.5 percent over the course of April. This is the third straight monthly increase in rent prices."

3. Rent prices (II). "Year-over-year rent growth is continuing to decelerate, and now stands at 1.7 percent, its lowest level since March 2021."

4. Card spending. "Total card spending per HH was up 2.4% y/y in the week ending Apr 22...Smoothing through the shift in the timing of Easter, total card spending per HH was -0.2% y/y in the 3 weeks ending Apr 22...Among services, y/y spending growth was stronger in restaurants & bars and entertainment than in airlines and lodging."

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5. Q1 GDP (I). "Q1 GDP came in at +1.1% q/q. Consumer spending's contribution to GDP was the highest since 2021, though offset by a big negative drag from the inventories component."

6. Q1 GDP (II). "Real final sales to private domestic purchasers (GDP less inventory change, net exports, and government spending) grew at a 2.9% annualized rate in the first quarter, the best reading since the reopening boom of spring 2021."

7. Q1 GDP (III). "Q1 was the 4th consecutive decline in fixed investment as the US has rolled out a full-blown capex boycott."

8. Q1 GDP (IV). "The big hit, however, was the change in private inventories, which subtracted 2.26% from the GDP print, the biggest hit to the bottom line number since the covid crash."

9. PCE prices. "Personal consumption expenditure (PCE) prices increased 4.2% in the first quarter after increasing 3.7% in the fourth quarter. Excluding food and energy, the PCE “core” price index increased 4.9% after increasing 4.4%."

10. Jobless claims (I). "Initial claims declined -16,000 last week to 230,000. The more important 4 week average declined -4,000 to 236,000. Continuing claims, with a one week lag, declined -3,000 to 1.858 million."

11. Jobless claims (II). "More importantly for forecasting purposes, YoY initial claims were up 11.1%, the 4 week average up 9.8%, and continuing claims up 22.1%."

12. Kansas City Fed manufacturing. "April [Kansas City Fed] Manufacturing Index down to -10 vs. -2 est. & 0 in prior month … new orders, production, exports, and shipments all sank into contraction; prices paid ticked slightly higher; employment dipped into contraction for first time since June 2020."

13. Fed talk. "Running the Fed minutes through a natural language processing model shows that the Fed is starting to turn more dovish...we are approaching the peak in this rate hike cycle and that the Fed is worrying less about inflation and more about the tighter credit conditions and the associated ongoing slowdown in growth."

14. Rate hike odds. "Market pricing implies 88% odds of a rate hike next week, up from earlier in the month. Some traders are starting to bet on a hike in June as well, but that's less certain. Either way, markets still think we're going to get multiple cuts later in 2023 & early 2024."

15. Bitcoin vs. altcoins. "Only 10% of altcoins have outperformed bitcoin over the past quarter – the lowest since August 2021."

16. Leading indicators. "Transportation and copper not interested in soft landing."

17. AAII sentiment. "Small changes in the latest AAII sentiment survey, bulls tad lower, bears small up."

18. Investor flows. "Government bond ETFs have retained highest share of inflows over past month (31.5%), followed by agg and corp bond funds ... large-cap equity funds were staging comeback earlier in month but have recently had outflows."

19. Top hedge fund stocks. "Mega cap longs are becoming a bit of a crowded trade when it comes to global hedge funds."

20. CTAs vs. SPX. "CTAs chased the recent S&P 500 rally higher."

21. Buybacks fade. "We expect buybacks to remain under pressure given the drop in FCF cover of shareholder payouts (buybacks and dividends) amid higher rates."

22. Staples vs. discretionary. "The relative performance of staples and consumer discretionary companies has traditionally been considered a recession indicator."

23. Staples vs. SPX. "Over the last 12 months, as rolling forward earnings expectations for the S&P 500 as a whole have fallen, so estimates for the S&P 500 Consumer Staples sector have risen."

24. SPX breadth (I). "Only 32% of S&P 500 components are outperforming the broader index, the lowest levels we've seen since [1999]."

25. SPX breadth (II). "The first quarter of 2023 saw the narrowest leadership ever for a rising market."

26. NDQ P/S. "NASDAQ 100’s price/sales ratio has declined significantly from peak, but comparing current level to pre-pandemic era, it’s still hovering near highest since late 2003/early 2004."

27. Tech P/E. "Tech is close to trading at highs vs the market when it comes to relative P/E."

28. Q1 EPS growth. "With 44% of companies reported, S&P 500 Q1 GAAP earnings are down 1% year-over-year, the 4th consecutive quarter of negative YoY growth."

29. Earnings reactions. And finally, “both EPS misses and beats have averaged one-day declines on their earnings reaction days this month.”

Thanks for reading!