Daily Chartbook #195

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1. OPEC production. "Ahead of the announced May cuts OPEC's production declined by 310kbd last month to 28.8mbd, a ten-month low."

2. Strategic Petroluem Reserves. "The Biden administration drained 2mm barrels from the SPR (the 5th straight week and largest drain since December)…The SPR is now at it slowest since October 1983."

3. US petroleum inventories. "Latest data shows US commercial total petroleum inventories *rose* last week by 0.4 MMbbl, which doesn't exactly help the current pricing environment."

4. Global trade volumes. "Even after adjusting for seasonality effects and differing numbers of working days in a given month, Global Trade volumes dropped further in March -- to the lowest levels since 2020 on an adjusted basis, and well below trend."

See: ,

5. Global electronics. "Price pressures in the global electronics sectors are collapsing, notably in consumer and communications markets, as supply chains improve and demand weakens."

6. National Financial Conditions Index. The NFCI "edged down to –0.27 in the week ending April 28, suggesting financial conditions continued to loosen."

7. Heavy truck sales. "Heavy truck sales were at 563 thousand SAAR in April, up from 486 thousand in March, and up 23% from 456 thousand SAAR in April 2022. Usually, heavy truck sales decline sharply prior to a recession."

See:

8. Private equity ownership. "Roughly half of the 22,000 'large' companies in the US are backed by PE."

9. Household savings. "Middle-income savings remain well up on pre-pandemic levels."

10. Card spending. "Middle-income groups are spending more on services, particularly dining out."

11. ADP payrolls. "At 296K, nearly DOUBLE the number expected, the decline in the 12-month rolling jobs growth has been broken."

See:

12. Wage changes. "Job-stayers 6.7%, down from 6.9% in March  and lowest since Dec 21...Job-changers 13.2%, down from 14.2% in March and lowest since Nov 2021."

13. Regional wage growth. "Looking at various regions, median wage growth (using 12m average) looks to be strongest in Mountain region with West South Central lagging most (but still strong relative to history)."

14. S&P Global Services PMI. The index moved up to 53.6 from 52.6 in March for the biggest expansion in the services sector of the year. Output, new orders, and employment growth all accelerated.

15. ISM Services. "ISM Services PMI for April = 51.9, above March's 51.2. Increase in New Orders, and Prices Paid (not in chart) basically unchanged at 59.6."

16. ISM prices vs. CPI. "The price indices of both the manufacturing and services ISM measures rose last month, but that doesn't change the message that inflation should keep falling."

17. Central bank liquidity. "Since March peak, Reserves have dropped by 9% mostly on RRP build up."

18. Debt ceiling risk pricing. "3-month Treasury Bill yields are not only higher than 12-month yields, but notably so -- by a half percentage point. Considerable risk is being assessed on summertime maturities due to the debt ceiling saga."

19. Fed decision. The Fed unanimously raised rates by the expected 25bps, bringing the target rate above headline inflation for the first time since August 2019.

20. SPX vs. Fed day. "Markets tend to move lower 10D into Fed Day and move higher 10D out. The range of outcomes is wide,  but 70% of time markets were higher 10 trading days post-Fed day. Avg gain: +1.21%."

21. SPX vs. last hike. "Looking at the past 10 'last hikes' the S&P 500 was up a year later 8 times and up more than 14% on avg."

22. Advisors' sentiment. "Investors Intelligence bears at 23.6%. Lowest since January 2022."

23. Sector net rating changes. "Bond downgrades for banks, upgrades for the rest."

24. 3-month flows. "Signs of reversal of the significant large cap outflows."

25. Buy signal. "A composite trend model for the S&P 500 just signaled a shift from a bearish to bullish trend. Historically, when similar trend reversals occurred, the S&P 500 rose 91% of the time over the next six months."

26. Tech insiders. "XLK insider buy/sell ratio has been declining rapidly and is back to levels last seen in 2020."

27. Earnings reaction. "The average S&P500 stock has moved +/-3.8% on earnings QTD."

28. Earnings forecast. "US earnings coming in a bit better than forecast: EPS -4%, rather than -7% . But analysts forecast a big earnings rebound from Q3, while the consensus among economists is that this is when the recession will start. I'm with the economists. Stocks haven't priced in recession."

Thanks for reading!