Daily Chartbook #237

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1. Government receipts. "Every time US tax receipts have tumbled this much, the US was in a deep recession."

2. Import/export prices. Import prices fell by 0.2% (vs. -0.1% est) in June to -6.1% YoY (vs. -3.6% est) while export prices dropped by 0.9% (vs. -0.2% est) to -12% YoY (vs. -11.1% est). The former is the biggest decline since May 2020 while the latter is the largest in series history.

3. Office space. "In coming years, national office vacancy rate expected to rise and market rents expected to continue to trend lower per [Fitch Ratings, CoStar Group]."

4. Interest costs. "Policy is not tight enough to cause a material slowdown in the corporate sector."

5. Consumer sentiment. “Consumer sentiment rose for the second straight month, soaring 13% above June and reaching its most favorable reading since September 2021...All components of the index improved considerably, led by a 19% surge in long-term business conditions and 16% increase in short-run business conditions.”

See:

6. Inflation expectations. "Inflation expectations rose with 1yr up 0.1 to 3.4% (3.1% est) and 5-10yr up 0.1 to 3.1% (3% est)."

7. Clean energy vs. fossil fuels. With estimated growth rates of 15-20% per year for the rest of the decade, solar and wind are projected to generate more than 1/3 of the world's electricity by 2030.

8. 10Y vs. copper/gold. "The 10yT yield has deviated meaningfully from the copper/gold ratio, which is a proxy for global growth."

9. DXY vs. yield curve. "There is no change in the real yield curve’s decisively negative trend, strongly suggesting the primary trend for the dollar remains down."

10. Global bond flows. "Global bonds experienced a 16th consecutive week of inflows, totaling $12bn in the week ending on 12th June."

11. Treasuries flows. Treasuries saw their largest inflow in 16 weeks ($8.7 bn).

12. Global equities flows. Inflows into global equities have accelerated over the past 7 weeks, totaling nearly $70 billion.

13. US equity flows. "US equity funds and ETFs saw +$12.58bn inflows this week."

14. Tech vs. healthcare. Tech saw its largest inflow in 4 weeks (+$2bn) while Healthcare saw its largest outflows in 5 months (-$1.1bn).

15. Retail buying (I). "Retail purchases of stocks and ETFs are off the recent highs."

16. Retail buying (II). "Here is a look at retail purchases by sector relative to this year’s peak."

17. HFs vs. airlines. There has been “a reduction in long/short ratios and a move to sell, despite very strong results.

18. HFs vs. staples. The “L/S ratio has moved lower in Staples after the safety bid to start the year.”

19. Investor allocations. "Our proxy for the cash balances of investors globally is being eroded and has fallen to below post Lehman crisis historical averages...The main counterpart to the decline in cash allocations has been an increase in equity allocations."

20. Put/call ratio. A rising put/call ratio suggests investors are hedging gains.

21. Buyback announcements. "US share buyback authorization announcements are still strong this year."

22. Bitcoin vs. Tech. "The 30-day correlation of Bitcoin and the Nasdaq-100 fell to its lowest level since 2020. Perhaps the decoupling shows BTC becoming less influenced by macro events  -- could be a validation of the asset."

23. Macro-driven dispersion. "Any dispersion in US equities is being driven by sectors...this suggests that the current dispersion is still very macro-driven, and as such, sector selection remains paramount."

24. S&P 500 breadth (I). “In first 5 months of year, >100% of S&P 500’s gains were driven by 10 largest constituents…since June 1, top 10’s total contribution to return has fallen to just over a third between June 1st and yesterday’s close.”

25. S&P 500 breadth (II). "YTD return for the median stock in the S&P 500 is up to 7.3% - it's highest level since the first week of February. Since the end of May, median stock (+9.4%) has outperformed the index (+7.9%)."

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26. Nasdaq breadth. "At 225, the Nasdaq Net New 52-week high achieved highest level since Nov. 2021."

27. Discretionary breadth. "A significant number of stocks, not named Amazon and Tesla, are in long-term uptrends."

28. EPS uncertainty (I). "Earnings downgrades have stopped…in the US and...Earnings uncertainty is falling in tandem with equity implied volatility."

29. EPS uncertainty (II). "EPS estimate uncertainty has been rising for Tech stocks even as it has been falling for the rest of the S&P 500."

30. NTM P/E expansion. And finally, the S&P 500 is “on track for the 3rd largest NTM P/E expansion in decades. Only ones better were early cycle periods 2009 & 2020.”

Have a great weekend!