Daily Chartbook #24

Welcome back to Daily Chartbook: market charts, data, research, and insights pulled from various sources around the Internet by a solo retail investor.

1. Oil. Commercial crude oil stocks sans SPR (Strategic Petroleum Reserves) are very low, suggesting higher gas prices ahead.

2. Housing (I). “Lower priced home sales are getting hit hardest as inflation/rising mortgage rates have a much bigger impact on demand from lower income buyers”.

3. Housing (II). Since the start of 2020, the growth in the sales price of the median single-family home (white) has exceeded the S&P 500's gains (blue).

4. Housing (III). Affordability “is at its lowest level in 33 years”.

5. Housing (IV). “The median price of an existing home sold in the US fell 2.4% in July, the largest monthly decline since January 2020”.

6. Housing (V). 73% of homeowners are happily locked in at mortgages under 4% (the current average is 5.13%).

7. Rent (I). Median rent payment growth YoY was 7.4%.

8. Rent (II). Median rent payment growth YoY for the top 10 most populous cities.

9. Rent (III). Drop in available rental units.

10. Rent (III). Median rent payment growth by generation shows “younger consumers are getting squeezed the most”.

11. Rent (IV). Everyone is “seeing significant increases in rent payments”, regardless of income group.

12. Ocean freight. Global container shipping rates continue declining, “with the Drewry Composite falling 3% to $6.2k/40ft box, a 15-month low and down 40% from the peak last Sept”. The pre-pandemic average was ~$1.3k.

13. Inventory levels. Inventories are rising across US retailers as “many pandemic beneficiaries face less demand with spending broadly shifting away from goods”.

14. Cord cutters. Here’s the share of total TV consumption by type which shows that streaming has surpassed cable as the top way Americans watch TV.

15. The ultimate contraceptive. The Wall Street Journal estimates “it now costs $300,000 to raise a child” thanks to inflation. These are the estimated annual expenses.

16. Flush. Consumers are sitting on record amounts of cash and are more employed than before the pandemic.

17. Global growth. Economic growth projections for the world.

18. Venture capital. VC funding is on pace for a 24% quarterly drop, and almost -50% YoY.

19. Commodity CAPEX. Capex for commodities has barely increased over the past 5 years, suggesting another wave of global commodity price increases ahead.

20. GDP forecast. BofA estimates Q3 GDP growth at 0.5%

21. Low volume. Yesterday was the “lowest volume day of the year” for equities.

22. Mass expiry. Over $2 trillion of options expired today.

23. Recession probability. Goldman on the risk of a correction: “Correction risk is elevated, with 30-40% probability of recession risk in 12m”. You might recall earlier this week Goldman's chances for a US recession were at 30%.

24. S&P 500 dividends. “Since its inception, about 45% of the S&P 500 ETF's $SPY total return has come from dividends reinvested”.

25. “Tightening”. From BofA: “for every $100 of bonds Fed bought during COVID, $5tn in total, they have sold just $2”.

26. Tech inflows. Technology ETF saw its biggest inflows in 5 months.

27. Treasury outflows. US Treasuries, on the other hand, saw their biggest outflows since September 2019.

28. DXY vs. sector. Sectors impacted most by a strong US dollar.

29. Cyclicals, defensives, and commodity producers. Cumulative returns since the market low on June 16 “for the largest cyclical, defensive and commodities-related sectors; returns are rates-hedged”.

30. Consensus progression. Consensus EPS growth progression.

31. Earnings erosion. “Only 30% of companies are seeing their estimates go up”.

32. Previous earnings drops. EPS fell between 21-52% peak-to-trough over the last 4 recessions. Estimates have only come down 1% this year.

33. Q2 earnings season. Earnings results vs. consensus, so far

34. Earnings matter. And finally, here’s the performance of stocks based on how earnings stacked up against estimates.

Have a great weekend!