Daily Chartbook #241

Welcome back to Daily Chartbook: the day’s best charts & insights, curated.

1. Home prices. "The typical U.S. home sold for $382,500 during the four weeks ending July 16, up 2.1% from a year earlier. That’s the biggest increase since December 2022 and the second straight price uptick after nearly five months of declines."

2. Active listings. "The total number of homes for sale is down 16%, the biggest dip in a year and a half, and inventory also posted an unseasonal monthly decline."

3. Existing home sales. Sales of existing homes fell more than expected (-3.3% vs. -2.3% est) in June for the biggest monthly drop since November 2022. The median existing-home price was the second highest ever at $410,200.

4. Truck tonnage. "American Trucking Associations’ advanced seasonally adjusted (SA) For-Hire Truck Tonnage Index rose 2.1% in June after increasing 1.2% in May."

5. Used cars. Used-vehicle prices fell 1% from June in the first 15 days of July and are down 11.1% from a year ago.

6. Business applications. "The US economy was already the most competitive and dynamic economy in the world, and the level of entrepreneurship and innovation has increased further during the pandemic."

7. Household debt. "American households are, in the aggregate, in good shape when it comes to debt service payments relative to the last 40 years."

8. Card spending. "Total card spending per HH was up 0.8% y/y in the week ending Jul 15, according to BAC aggregated credit and debit card data."

9. Corporate net interest. "The US corporate sector is a massive net borrower. When interest rates rise, so too do net debt payments, squeezing profit margins and slowing the economy. BUT NOT THIS TIME. Corporate net interest payments have instead collapsed."

10. CRE transactions. "Higher rates & deteriorating market conditions have driven CRE transactions to a standstill. Office property transactions fell to a 13-year low in March."

11. Philly Fed Manufacturing (I). "Outlook improved 0.2 to -13.5 which was worse than expected (-10). New orders dropped 4.9. The one standout in June was prices received which rose 22.9. The prices paid minus received dropped to an all time low."

12. Philly Fed Manufacturing (II). "While current new orders slipped, expectations have surged. At 38.2, the future new orders diffusion index has jumped to its highest level since August 2021."

13. Jobless claims. Initial jobless claims fell unexpectedly last week, dropping 9k (vs. +5k est) while continuing claims rose by the sharpest (33k) in 3 months.

14. CB Leading Economic Index (I). The index fell 0.7% in June and "has been in decline for fifteen months—the longest streak of consecutive decreases since 2007-08."

15. CB Leading Economic Index (II). "LEI was down 7.8% Y-o-Y in June, a level consistent with a 20% drop in S&P500 EPS."

16. Oil streak. "Brent crude oil has been trading below its 200-day moving average for nearly 250 days ... longest streak since one that ended in 2016 (almost longer than one in mid-1990s)."

17. Oil open interest. "WTI Oil futures risk rapidly declined this week. Over the past 3 sessions, aggregate open interest cratered $8bn. This included a $4.5bn drop yesterday - the largest 1 day decline over the past year and >5x the daily average."

18. Altcoin outperformance. Over the past month, 82% of altcoins have outperformed Bitcoin, suggesting risk-on sentiment.

19. AAII sentiment. "AAII survey has had more bulls than bears for 7 weeks in a row (the longest stretch since Jul 2021). Bears have dropped to their lowest level since Jun 2021 and bulls are above 50% for the first time since Apr 2021."

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20. Active managers. The NAAIM Exposure Index increased to 99, the highest level since late 2021.

21. Call options. "Appetite for risk remains strong in US equity markets."

22. HF trading activity. "This past week's de-grossing activity is the largest since January and ranks in the 97th percentile vs. the past five years, driven by short covers and to a lesser extent long sales (2.3 to 1)."

23. HF short covering. "This past week's short covering in US equities is the largest since Nov '22 and equates to a Z-score of-1.6 (vs. Z-score of-2.6 seen in Nov '22 and-2.3 in Jan '21), led by aggressive covers in Macro Products."

24. MAGMA skew. "We are now seeing MAGMA skew trade near all-time lows (1st%ile over 10yr) and AMZN, MSFT & GOOGL skew are all trading inverted (calls over puts)."

25. Most short. "Our Most Short basket 2-month relative returns to SPX is 23% today, which is the 4th highest return spread since 1-Jan-2010 (looking at 2m returns daily), and ranks in the 99th percentile."

26. VIX seasonality. Seasonality suggests higher volatility ahead.

See: ,

27. Nasdaq bear markets. "The Nasdaq is lagging the average bear-market recovery."

28. SPX streak. "[39] consecutive days without a 1% drop in the S&P500, its longest run since 2019."

29. 0DTE. "Volumes in options with less than 24 hours to expiration have remained a steady 43% of overall options volumes since the introduction of SPX daily options in April 2023."

30. OpEx Friday. And finally, “we estimate that over $2.3 trillion of notional options exposure will expire this Friday including $500 billion notional of single stock options.”

Thanks for reading!