Daily Chartbook #244

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1. Case-Shiller Home Price Index. "For the 3rd straight month, home prices rose more than expected (up 0.99% MoM vs 0.7% exp in May) - that is the biggest MoM rise since May 2022. On a YoY basis, home prices remain lower (marginally at -1.70%) in America's 20 largest cities."

2. FHFA House Price Index. The average price of single-family homes rose by 0.7% MoM in May (vs. +0.2% est). Prices are up 2.8% YoY (vs. +2.6% est) which is the lowest since April 2012.

3. CRE transactions. "Office transaction volumes contracted by 68% vs. the second quarter of last year."

4. C&I lending. "The stock of bank lending to commercial and industrial companies fell in June for the fifth straight month...falling nominal bank lending is not normal in a growing economy."

5. Default cycle. "Once there is a default by some household name in credit, we will likely see an overnight change in market sentiment from bullish to bearish."

6. Financial conditions. "The nominal GS US Financial Conditions Index tightened by 1.7bp to 99.44 over the last week, as a stronger dollar more than offset higher equity prices."

7. Global GDP forecast. The IMF increased its forecast for global GDP in 2023 by 0.2 percentage points to 3%.

8. Q2 US GDP. "We boosted our Q2 GDP forecast to 2.5%."

9. Redbook retail sales. The Redbook Index fell 0.4% YoY in the week ending Jul 22.

10. Consumer confidence (I). The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index jumped to its highest since July 2021. Present situation and expectations also increased, with the former making a new post-Covid high.

11. Consumer confidence (II). "Consumer inflation expectations over the next 12 months dropped to 5.70% - its lowest since Oct 2020."

12. Philly Services. Non-manufacturing activity bounced back into expansion territory in July, rising 18 pts to 1.4, the highest since February. Employees, workweek, prices paid/received, and new orders all rose.

13. Richmond Manufacturing. The headline index declined less than expected to -9. Wages and jobs rose while new orders, shipments, and prices paid and received declined.

14. Commodity flows. Global commodity markets have seen record inflows YTD at $228 billion.

15. CTAs vs. WTI. "Buying activity continues to support crude markets. The tides are turning in energy markets, as high-frequency demand signals continue to clash with macroeconomic concerns."

16. Corporate spreads. "Corporate bond spreads are signaling a lot of confidence in future cash flows/earnings."

17. Treasury positioning. "Speculative positioning in Treasury futures remains extremely bearish."

18. FOMC risk. "Extremely little risk priced for the FOMC meeting. Chart shows SPX 1 week implied volatility skew within one week of FOMC meetings."

19. Market Sentiment. "Our Market Sentiment Indicator (MSI) signal flipped back to negative as sentiment level fell from its peak last week."

20. Exposure plans. Sharp rise in plans to increase equity exposure and decrease bond duration among JPM clients.

21. HF exposure. "Overall book Net leverage has seen a sharp reversal in July and is now in the 96th percentile vs. the past year. Fundamental L/S Net leverage continued trending higher and is in the 97th percentile."

22. HF trading flows (I). "After being heavily net sold in June, US equities are modestly net bought MTD driven by short covers."

23. HF trading flows (II). "Hedge funds have net sold Cyclicals and TMT while modestly net bought Consumer Discretionary stocks so far in July. Net flow in Defensives is little changed MTD."

24. HF positioning. "Measure of directional bias suggests Fundamental L/S managers are slightly more guarded vs. June, though L/S ratio remains near 1-year highs. Overall Prime Book L/S ratio has bounced off the lows."

25. HFs vs. banks. Long exposure to banks is in the 9th percentile since 2010.

26. HFs vs. AI. "It remains a high-conviction trade, with net exposure nearing multi-year highs. Despite some increased short additions recently, the balance still favors long exposure by approximately a 5:1 ratio."

27. Households vs. equities. "Households' allocation to equities is above the 2019 average and below the December 2021 peak; this measure has picked back up again recently."

28. Investor flows. "Investor appetite for risk assets hasn't cooled as large-/mid-cap equity funds have accounted for 62% of past month's inflows; still interest in investment grade corporates, munis, and U.S. government bonds, but share of inflows has compressed."

29. Prices vs. sales growth. "With price being the main factor that has held sales growth above zero for many companies this year, it would be a material headwind if that pricing power were to roll over."

30. SPX vs. median stock. And finally, the “median stock led off the lows last year, mega caps have played catch up this year. Altogether, $SPX is down 5.0% since beginning of 2022 & median stock is down 5.6%."

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