Daily Chartbook #253

Welcome back to Daily Chartbook: the day’s best charts & insights, curated.

1. Shelter inflation. "Our baseline forecast suggests that year-over-year shelter inflation will continue to slow through late 2024 and may even turn negative by mid-2024...The deflationary component of this forecast would be the most severe contraction in shelter inflation since the Global Financial Crisis of 2007-09."

2. Supply chain. "The supply chain, freight, and Dry Bulk Indices are turning and they are shaking off a massive disinflation since last June…It is notable change that is dashing the hopes of bond bulls for deflation at the end of the disinflation rainbow."

3. Used cars. Wholesale used-vehicle prices fell 1.6% in July and are now down 11.6% YoY.

4. GDP outlook. BofA made "big ole upward GDP growth revisions."

5. Recession probabilities. Across asset classes, only base metals are discounting a recession. 

6. Temp employment. "In the pre-Covid era, the recent trend in temporary unemployment would have been consistent with permanent private job growth running at about 100K, just half the current three month average pace."

7. Inflation expectations. "Market-implied inflation expectations over the next 5-10 years have risen to the highest levels in more than a year. Traders are starting to game out a future with sustainably higher inflation and higher long-term bond yields."

8. Credit card debt. "After several months of solid increases, including a near-record $14.8 billion in April, in June credit card debt actually dropped by $0.6 billion - the first negative print since April 2021."

9. Crypto flows. "Digital asset investment products saw outflows [last] week, totaling US$107m with profit taking gathering pace in recent weeks."

10. Oil positioning. "Oil products net managed money surged by 30mb [last] week, and now stands at percentile 66."

11. IG bonds. "Ninety-one percent of US investment grade bonds are trading below par."

12. Bond yields vs. Fed. "UST yields rise and the curve flat-tens before the last Fed hike and yields fall and the curve steepens after the last Fed hike."

13. Bonds flows. After attracting $4.9bn in the week ending Aug 2, US bonds have now seen inflows for 19 consecutive weeks.

14. Treasuries bets (I). "Bets against Treasury futures hit another record."

15. Treasuries bets (II). "Leveraged fund increased net-short positions of longer-maturity Treasuries derivatives to the most since figures going back to 2010...Asset managers took opposite bets, taking their own net-bullish positions to an all-time high."

16. Stocks vs. bonds. "Equity correlations to fixed income have exploded higher over the last month, reaching new highs on a 20yr lookback."

17. Market sentiment. "Morgan Stanley's market sentiment indicator remains risk-negative."

18. Risk sentiment indicators. "To put a line under current positioning, on a scale of -10 to +10, again my sense for current length in US equities is +6." 

19. Call delta. S&P 500 options traders bought the most call delta in several years in July.

20. Sell-off sensitivity. Vol control funds are increasingly sensitive to a 2% market sell-off.

21. Potential supply. "Equity leverage in Vol Target funds and trend following CTAs are each in the 88th%ile versus history. That means significant potential supply in a selloff."

22. Equity positioning (I). "The GS sentiment indicator remains positive."

23. Equity positioning (II). Aggregate equity positioning edged lower as systematic strategies rose modestly higher while discretionary investors have given back ~1/3 of the increase since late May.

24. CTAs vs. equities. CTA exposure to equities is in the 85th percentile.

25. Global sector flows. Tech funds continue to attract inflows.

26. HFs vs. Discretionary. "US Consumer Discretionary was heavily net sold [by hedge funds last] week driven by long-and-short sales...notional net selling was the largest since Nov ’22 and ranks in the 85th percentile versus the past five years."

27. Asset manager futures exposure. "Asset manager net exposure in futures (i.e. longs-shorts) as a share of gross (longs + shorts) is at 50%, just a touch off historical highs."

28. New highs. "Swift move lower last week for % of members making a new 52-week high for S&P 500 (blue) and NASDAQ (orange)."

29. Earnings reactions (I). "The stock of a company that has beaten estimates is down an average of 0.5 percent from the 2 days before its release to 2 days after…[which] is the worst response to earnings beats in the last 5 years."

30. Earnings reactions (II). And finally, earnings reactions have been particularly negative for growth stocks.

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