Daily Chartbook #280

Catch up on the day in 30 charts

Welcome back to Daily Chartbook: the day’s best charts & insights, curated.

1. Asking prices. The median asking price for newly listed homes rose 4.3% YoY in the week ending Sept 10, the biggest increase since November 2022.

2. Housing payments. "The median monthly mortgage payment hit an all-time high of $2,632."

3. Jobless claims. Initial "claims were 220k (5k below consensus) and up 4k from prior week. Continuing claims came in 2k below consensus at 1,688k  (+9k from prior week)."

4. Producer prices (I). Headline (chart) and core producer prices rose by 0.7% (vs. 0.4% est, 0.4% prev) and 0.2% (in-line, 0.4% prev), respectively. The increase in the former was the sharpest in 14 months driven by a 10.5% jump in energy prices.

5. Producer prices (II). "August PPI inflation (blue ) +1.6% year/year vs. +1.3% est. & +0.8% prior … core (orange) +2.2% vs. +2.2% est. & +2.4% prior."

6. Retail sales (I). Retail sales increased by 0.6% MoM in August (vs. 0.2% est,  0.5% prev) led by a surge in sales at gas stations.

7. Retail sales (II). On an annual basis, retail sales increased 2.5%, down from last month's 2.6% reading.

8. Retail sales (III). "Control group retail sales (which matters most for GDP calculation) +0.1% m/m in August … a beat given -0.1% consensus estimate but down from +1% in prior month."

9. Retail sales (IV). "Once you adjust for inflation, the retail sales data is much less encouraging with notable pullbacks in volumes across most categories."

10. Business inventories. "July business inventories 0% m/m vs. +0.1% est. & 0% in prior month … wholesaler inventories +0.2% vs. -0.7% prior; retailer inventories +0.2% vs. +0.5% prior."

11. Q3 GDP. The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow estimate for Q3 GDP growth dropped sharply to 4.9% from 5.6%.

12. Record inversion. The 3-month, 10-year Treasury curve has been inverted for a record (since at least 1962) 212 days.

13. Near-record inversion. "The spread between the 2-year and 10-year yield — a classic recession indicator — has been negative for 313 straight trading days, the longest streak since 1980."

14. USD vs. Fed cycle. Since 1973, "the USD tended to cede some ground in the months after the end of the Fed tightening cycle and sell off at the start of the Fed easing cycle."

15. Assets vs. curve regimes. This chart shows how assets perform in different curve regimes

16. Household allocations. "US households currently allocate 43% of their total financial assets to equities, which is elevated."

17. Investor allocations. "Regardless of what people say or what you hear in the news, overall people are fairly bullish on equities."

See: ,

18. Top 0.1%. "The top 0.1% of households, who have at least $38 million of annual income, added over $1 trillion in stocks and bonds between 2Q22 and 1Q23."

19. AAII sentiment. "Bullish: Below average for the fourth time in five weeks. Neutral: At highest level since May 18. Bearish: Below average for the second consecutive week."

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20. Active managers exposure. The NAAIM Exposure Index increased to 57.9 from 49.7.

21. Hedge fund exposure. "Hedge funds take the bait, get aggressive short-side in individual names."

22. CTA positioning. CTA positioning in US Tech vs. small caps is rising.

23. Crowding. "Crowding in the Market has eased from the recent sell-off in Beta factor. However, crowding versus the Size factor continues to rise."

24. Short interest. "Short interest in US stocks continues to hit multi-year lows."

25. Buybacks vs. earnings. The slowdown in buybacks points to a drop in EPS growth ahead.

26. Mutual fund year-end. "$925B worth of Mutual Funds report their year-end at the end of October...(only December $3.491 Trillion) is larger. There is zero tolerance to show a large cash pile and underinvestment to major trendy themes like AI."

27. Nasdaq A/D. "There's a clear & present misunderstanding with those who think $COMPQ A/D Line is relevant to Nasdaq performance. Nasdaq has made new all-time highs throughout it's history with its A/D Line making consistent new lows."

28. Small-cap breadth. "11 months off S&P 500’s October 2022 low and only 39% of Russell 2000 members are trading above their 200-day moving average … back when we were 11 months off 2020 low, there were >90% of members trading above their 200-day moving average."

29. Sales growth. "With 99% of companies now reported, S&P 500 Q2 sales per share were up 7.1% over the last year. That's the slowest growth rate since Q4 2020 but still above the historical average (5.8%) and well above the expectations entering earnings season."

30. Seasonality setup. And finally, “since 1900, 123 years of data (1900-2022), the average Q4 return for SPX when Q1-Q3 exceed >10% going into Q4, is +4.6%. SPX is up ~16% YTD.”

Thanks for reading!

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