Daily Chartbook #307

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1. Buying vs. renting. "The cost of buying a home versus renting one is at its most extreme since at least 1996. The average monthly new mortgage payment is 52% higher than the average apartment rent."

2. Canceled contracts. "Home purchases are falling through at the highest rate in nearly a year."

3. Global prices. "According to World Economics, companies accelerated price increases this month."

4. Subprime delinquencies. "The percent of subprime auto borrowers at least 60 days past due on their loans rose to 6.11% in September, the highest in data going back to 1994."

5. Small biz interest rates. "Small businesses are now paying 10% interest on short-term loans…The outcome is lower capex spending and lower hiring."

6. Chicago Fed National Activity Index. The CFNAI "increased to +0.02 in September from –0.22 in August, pointing to economic growth near historical trend."

7. USD positioning. "Positioning is not overly long the USD."

8. Oil vs. SPX. "While the recent jump in oil concerned some investors, higher oil prices have historically helped S&P earnings."

9. US 10-year. Yields on 10-year US Treasuries breached the psychological 5% threshold this morning for the first time since 2007.

10. UST shorts. "Leveraged funds raise their record net short position in US Treasuries futures, which will do little to soothe regulators' concern about the financial stability risks these bets pose."

11. CTAs vs. USTs. "Conditional forecasts for US TSYs over the next month shows that CTAs are primed to buy under any scenario, including if bonds actually drop in price.

12. Sentiment Indicator. Per Goldman's Sentiment Indicator, positioning has flipped back to positive after dipping negative for the first since May last week.

13. Global equity positioning. Aggregate (34th percentile), discretionary (37th), and systematic strategies positioning (36th) are all below neutral.

14. CTAs vs. global equities. CTA exposure to global equities is in the 19th percentile.

15. CTAs vs. US equities. "In the US, CTAs are short -$14bn of equities after buying $16bn last week."

16. Smart money positioning. Asset managers and leveraged funds remain bullish on large-cap tech and bearish on small-caps.

17. Insiders. "The Insider Transactions Ratio is neutral, indicating a balanced approach in the transactions of insiders."

18. Sector fund flows. "Energy ($0.6bn) received inflows for a seventh consecutive week."

19. HF trading flow (I). "US equities saw increased shorting activity for a 3rd straight week (6 of the last 7), and [last] week’s notional short flow ranks in the 84th percentile vs. the past 5 years."

20. HF trading flow (II). "Info Tech, Energy, Industrials, and Health Care were the most notionally net sold sectors, while Consumer Discretionary, Staples, and Real Estate were the most net bought."

21. HFs vs. Tech. "Info Tech saw the largest net selling in 13 weeks and was net sold in every region."

22. HFs vs. Energy. "HFs sold US Energy at the fastest pace in 7 months led by short sales ... [L/S ratio now] at the lowest level since Aug ’20 and in the 1st percentile vs. the past five years."

23. Bad breadth. Goldman's breadth indicator dropped sharply over the past week, to 5 from 10.

24. Quiet strength. "New lows have exceeded new highs for ten weeks in a row. It’s been seven weeks since we had even a single day with more new highs than new lows. Now volatility is starting to rise, as the S&P 500 moved 1% (or more) three times last week."

See:

25. SPX volatility. "The spread between SPX intraday high vs low moves vs SPX closing moves is at one of the widest levels in over 2 years."

26. Stocks vs. Fed pause. "Historically, stocks DECLINE leading into a Fed pause and then RALLY during the pause. This cycle has reversed the historic trend. Stocks rallied heading into the Fed's final hike (July) and have fallen since."

27. Management guidance. "Guidance is weakening for the second month. Our 1-mo. guidance ratio plummeted to just 0.2x in September, the lowest level since Jun 2019."

28. Tech earnings preview. "Four of the six industries in the sector are reporting (or are expected to report) a year-over-year increase in earnings."

29. Earnings reaction. "Shares of US firms that miss profit estimates are falling by the most in four years."

30. Earnings revisions breadth. And finally, earnings revisions breadth “is now definitively breaking lower into negative territory and diverging from index price.”

Thanks for reading!