Daily Chartbook #71

wWelcome back to Daily Chartbook: macro market charts, data, and insights pulled from various sources around the Internet by a solo retail investor.

1. US petroleum inventories. "US commercial crude inventories up, total petroleum down. Distillate (i.e., diesel) inventories up slightly but essentially flat for the second week in a row, still remain at incredible low levels".

2. Strategic reserves (I). “The US Strategic Petroleum Reserve moved down for the 59th consecutive week to its lowest level since 1984. The 32% decline in reserves this year is the largest on record by a wide margin.”

3. Strategic reserves (II). "The White House announced that the US will look to refill the Strategic Petroleum Reserve at an oil price of between $67-$72—which the US Energy Information Administration does not currently forecast we'll see in 2023".

4. Mortgage rates. "30yr Fixed Mortgage rate is now the highest since 2000".

5. Mortgage demand softens. "Mortgage purchase applications index fell to the weakest reading since early 2015...The unadjusted Purchase Index was 42% lower than the same week one year ago".

6. Home sales (I). New home sales in September dropped 10.9% MoM, bringing YoY sales down 17.6%.

7. Home sales (II). "Distribution of new home sales by price". The median sales price in September was $470,600.

8. It's different this time. "In 2005, two out of five mortgages were ARMs. 2 in 100 as of 2021".

9. Goods trade balance. The US goods-trade deficit widened for the first time since March.

10. Inventory levels (I). "Inventories rising but at slower pace: September wholesale inventories (blue) +0.8% vs. +1% est. & +1.4% prior (rev up from 1.3%); retail (orange) +0.4% vs. +1.2% est. & +1.4% prior".

11. Inventory levels (II). "Inventory levels across the retail space are at all-time highs".

12. GDP forecast. From Goldman Sachs.

13. Atlanta Fed. "Q3 GDP model goes to 3.2% on increase in government spending".

14. Treasury bulls. "JPMorgan says its clients turned net long Treasurys for the first time since March 2021--and have the most bullish positioning since **Sept 2020**".

15. Yield inversions. "Spreads between 2y & 10y Treasury yields (blue) and 3m & 10y yields (orange) both negative for first time since August 2019".

16. Treasury curve. "There are very few times in history the curve has shifted up in such a short span of time".

17. Stocks vs. Bonds (I). "Bonds and Equities have seen some of the tightest correlations this year, compared to the last 20 years".

18. Stocks vs. Bonds (II). However, the "rolling 120d correlation between S&P 500 (blue) and 10y U.S. Treasury yield (orange) has fallen to lowest since 2006".

19. Insider activity. "The Corporate Insider Buy/Sell Ratio has finally crossed above a compelling level".

20. Retail blinks. "September saw the first drop in retail brokerage accounts held with Interactive & Schwab since July 2020".

21. Impact on retirement accounts. "Total retirement assets have fallen more in 2022 (so far) than ever before, with most of burden being placed on those coming close to retirement age ... by 2Q22, average account's share of financial assets fell to lowest since 2009".

22. Earnings revisions. "We’ve had 21 consecutive weeks with downgrades outpacing upgrades".

23. Visualizing past recessions. "Stocks tend to bottom long before the economy does".

24. H.O.P.E.1 "As I’ve said all year, I’ll call 'bottom' when I believe housing leading indicators are about to bottom. In recessions (not soft landings), housing LEIs bottom same time as PMIs. When will PMIs bottom? Don’t hold your breath".

25. Key VIX levels. "We are at the start of the 5th move lower for the VIX after a high above 30 in the current year. Stocks have always rallied when this happens. Key VIX levels to watch: 24 and 20".

26. The seasonality chart. "Everything you thought you knew about seasonality is wrong…".

Thanks for reading!