Daily Chartbook #91

Welcome back to Daily Chartbook: macro market charts, data, and insights pulled from various sources around the Internet by a solo retail investor.

1. US petroleum inventory monitor. "US total commercial petroleum inventories rose 3.3 MMbbl last week as refined product builds overwhelmed a 3.7 MMbbl draw in crude stocks. Gasoline built by 3.1 MMbbl, distillate's built by 1.7 MMbbl—in both cases, the largest road fuels stock build in months".

2. Mortgage rates cool. "US mortgage rates retreated sharply for a second week, hitting a two-month low".

3. New home sales (I). Sales of new homes jumped unexpectedly, rising 7.5% in October.

4. New home sales (II). "The jump in new-home sales 'is impossible to square with the collapse in mortgage demand; current prices can’t be sustained."

5. Median prices. "The median new home price just hit a record $493,000, up 8.2% M/M from $455,700 in Sept, and up from $427,300 a year ago".

6. Global freight. "Global shipping rates still in free-fall ... only route not participating in drop is from Rotterdam to New York".

7. Fed balance sheet. Over the last decade, the "US central bank has purchased 26 percent of the Treasury’s net issuance of public debt ($14.7 trillion) over this period".

8. Initial jobless claims (I). Jobless claims jumped to 240k last week (highest since August), well above expectations of 225k. Continuing claims rose above expectations as well to the highest since March 2022.

9. Initial jobless claims (II). Claims by state.

10. Unemployment expectations. "Along with the ongoing impact of inflation, consumer attitudes have also been weighed down by rising borrowing costs, declining asset values, and weakening labor market expectations".

11. Consumer sentiment. "The final headline sentiment print for November rose from the flash print (56.8 vs 54.7) and was better than expected as 'expectations' rose significantly from the flash print. The headline (and the two sub-indices) did all drop however on the month with current conditions tumbling from 65.6 to 58.8".

12. Inflation expectations (I). University of Michigan inflation expectations for the medium term remained unchanged (3%) while short-term expectations fell to 5.1% from 4.9%.

13. Inflation expectations (II). A mix of indicators.

14. Buying conditions. "Buying conditions for durables, which had markedly improved last month, decreased most sharply in November, falling back 19% to its September level on the basis of high interest rates and continued high prices".

15. Durable goods and shipment. "New orders rose by 1.0% in October, while core orders, which exclude transportation and defense, rose by 0.8%. Orders for capital goods, a proxy for future business investment, rose by 0.7% on the month".

16. S&P Global Flash Composite PMI. "Demand weakness weighs further on private sector business activity in November".

17. S&P Global Flash Services/Manufacturing PMI. Manufacturing and services both fell below expectations.

18. PMI vs. GDP. "The US Composite PMI was even weaker than expected in November and implies a recession is likely".

19. New orders vs. EPS. "Global manufacturing PMI new orders tend to lead world EPS growth by 12 months".

20. Global earnings. "Global earnings revision ratio: 30-month low".

21. Weakening dollar. "After five straight quarterly gains, U.S. dollar is having its worst quarter thus far since 2Q20".

22. Global breadth & USD. "60% of world markets are above their 200-day average (priced in local currencies). That's the highest since February. The US is in the other 40%".

23. Earnings recessions. "If there is NO recession, then the market may be close to a bottom as earnings have likely declined enough. However, if a recession sets in, there is more work to be done".

24. Equity put activity. "CBOE equity put activity at highest level in a decade yesterday".

25. Depressed exposure. "Chart shows that there are still a lot of strategies running "depressed" equity exposure".

26. Mutual fund performance. "Driven by exceptional stock picking and high cash allocations, mutual funds are on track for their best year relative to the major indices since 2007".

27. All time high buybacks. "Buyback authorizations are tracking above the record level of 2021".

28. Resources flows. Energy and materials have seen their largest inflows in 23 weeks.

29. Positive flows. And finally, “net equity inflows have surged over the last 4 weeks as buybacks kick in and investors chase the rally”.

Happy Thanksgiving!