Daily Chartbook #96

Welcome back to Daily Chartbook: macro market charts, data, and insights pulled from various sources around the Internet by a solo retail investor.

1. Food prices. "Global food prices fell for an eighth month in November".

2. Payrolls (I). "Hotter November nonfarm payrolls, +263k vs. +200k est. & +284k in prior month".

3. Payrolls (II). One-month change by sector.

4. Average hourly earnings. "Problem for Fed? November average hourly earnings +0.6% m/m vs. +0.3% est. & +0.5% in prior month (rev up from +0.4%) … strongest gain since January".

5. Wage growth. Atlanta Fed's year-over-year wage tracker appears to have peaked.

6. Unemployment rate (I). "The US Unemployment Rate held at 3.7% in November, 0.2% higher than the September reading (3.5%) which was back to pre-pandemic levels and the lowest rate we've seen since 1969".

7. Unemployment rate (II). "Despite the strong payrolls number, prime-age employment rate continues to tick down, at 79.7% in November".

8. Unemployment rate (III). "If you were ever curious about how the various US unemployment rates (U-3, U-6, etc...) work, here is a chart".

9. Participation rates (I). "Labor force participation rate continues to dip, down to 62.1% in November vs. 62.3% est. & 62.2% prior".

10. Participation rates (II). "Unfortunate move down in prime-age labor force participation rate".

11. Overblown tech layoffs. "Nearly a third of the discussion about “Job Cuts” from US company earnings calls are stemming from the technology sector, which doesn’t employ that many people".

12. Surveys gap (I). There remains a gap between the Established Survey and the Household Survey.

13. Surveys gap (II). "Record divergence between the establishment data (left) and the household data (right)".

14. Peak inflation? "Even as they edge down, consumer price readings will remain way above the comfort zone for central banks, necessitating further tightening even as recession risks loom". 

15. Terminal rate. "Rate bets are reloading after the jobs print. Terminal rate from 4.84% to 4.95%. Remains a long way from the peak of 5.22%".

16. Commodities slip. "While November saw a synchronized move higher in risky assets, commodities were a notable exception, with broad-based S&P GSCI Total Return Index slipping 2%".

17. But precious metals rally. "Precious Metals have been an exception to commodities downtrend, with Silver +14% and Gold +7% in November; S&P GSCI Gold Index, aided by twin-tailwinds of weakening U.S. dollar & lower rates, is +11% from YTD low (now > 200-DMA)".

18. US ERP. "US Equity Risk Premium at Global Financial Crisis Lows".

19. Equity outflows. Equities saw $18 billion in outflows in the week ending November 30 (Wednesday).

20. Utilities inflows. "Largest inflow to utilities since Jan’22".

21. Chasers. "Lot of FOMO during the last squeeze. Nobody can explain why they aren't long enough as year end approaches".

22. Hedge fund positioning. "Equity long/short hedge funds saw gross spiking to 93%-tile (12m). Have not seen that in a while. Net 'cautious' at 37%-tile".

23. NAAIM exposure. The exposure index for active managers moved up 64.4 from 60.3 the previous week.

24. Seasonality. "Jan is the strongest month in yr 3 of presidential cycle, where we historically have seen up 83% of the time, averaging +3.4%".

25. S&P 2023. Aggregate predictions for the S&P next year are negative for the first time since 1999.

26. Growth vs. Value. "Worst year for growth vs value since 2000".

27. Valuations matter. "Valuations matter for forward returns. P/Es explain roughly 83% of subsequent 10-year annualized total #returns for the S&P 500 since 1990. Current P/E levels, suggest average annual returns in the mid- to high-single-digit range over the next 10 years.".

28. EPS estimates (I). "Nine of the 11 sectors witnessed a decrease in their bottom-up EPS estimate for Q4 2022 from September 30 to November 30, led by the Materials (-21.3%), Consumer Discretionary (-12.2%), and Communication Services (-11.4%)".

29. EPS estimates (II). Similarly, "nine sectors witnessed a decrease in their bottom-up EPS estimate for CY 2023 from September 30 to November 30, led by the Communication Services (-9.4%), Materials (-8.1%), and Consumer Discretionary (-6.8%)".

30. EPS estimates (III). And finally, “the decline in the bottom-up EPS estimate recorded during the first two months of the fourth quarter was larger than the 5-year average, the 10-year average, the 15-year average, and the 20-year average”.

Have a great weekend!