Daily Chatbook #207

Welcome back to Daily Chartbook: the day’s best charts & insights, curated.

Administrative note: I’ve been summoned for jury duty tomorrow which means DC#208 will be a game-time decision depending on how the day progresses.

1. Case-Shiller Home Prices. "March S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City Home Price Index (blue) -1.15% year/year vs. -1.6% est. & +0.36%; National Home Price Index (orange) +0.66% year/year vs. +2.13% prior (rev up from +2.05%)."

2. FHFA House Prices. "March FHFA House Price Index +0.6% m/m vs. +0.2% est. & +0.7% prior (rev up from +0.5%) … 3 months of consecutive gains, which hasn’t happened since mid-2022."

3. Debt ceiling deal. "The deal barely dents the roughly $20 trillion in combined budget deficits projected over the next decade as it takes just a slice of discretionary spending."

4. Checkable deposits. "You can tweak 'excess savings' analysis a number of ways to create whatever narrative you prefer. More useful to study aggregate checkable deposit data. After increasing by +$4 trillion during the pandemic, total checkable deposits just began rolling over in Q4."

5. Loan delinquencies. "Auto loan transitions to serious delinquency are rising and approaching 2008 levels, in particular for younger borrowers."

6. Restaurant demand. "Indicators of restaurant activity are starting to show signs of weakness...This is important because consumer services have so far been quite strong."

7. Financial stress vs. unemployment, inflation. "While both banking stress and tighter monetary policy can slow economic activity, historical evidence suggests that financial stress has been less effective in reducing inflation." 

8. Tighter credit vs. GDP. "We estimate that tighter credit will reduce 2023Q4/Q4 GDP growth by 0.4pp."

9. Surprise. "U.S. Economic Surprise Index from [Bloomberg] (blue) has risen to highest since January 2022 … at that point, S&P 500 (orange) was virtually at all-time high."

10. Consumer confidence (I). "Consumer confidence inched down in May to the lowest level in six months as sentiment on both the current economy and expectations weakened. More important, labor market sentiment fell to the lowest level in two years, signaling a potential significant slowdown in May’s job gains."

11. Consumer confidence (II). "Despite the deterioration in labor market conditions, consumer 12-month inflation expectations fell to a fresh low. Not surprisingly, net income expectations jumped to +6.3, the highest since December 2021."

12. Dallas Fed manufacturing. The index contracted for the 13th consecutive month, falling to its lowest level in 3 years.

13. Crypto outflows. "Digital asset investment products saw outflows totalling US$39m, representing the 6th consecutive week of outflows totalling US$272m."

14. CTAs vs. gold. "CTAs are not bullish on gold."

15. Bonds vs. cash. "When Fed cut rates during previous cycles, bonds have significantly outperformed cash."

16. MOVE vs. VIX. "Equities have underperformed Treasuries when the MOVE/VIX ratio exceeds 7.0...Currently, the ratio stands at 8.3, a level rarely seen."

See:

17. Insider buying. "Financial corporate insiders continue to increase their buying. Either they do not understand the risks currently swirling around their industry, OR they understand them very well – and are buying anyway."

18. Flow sentiment. "Record negative flow sentiment on SMID caps YTD."

19. Discretionary vs. systematic positioning. "The FOMO chase is on as systemic strategies have to play catch up to the market."

20. Buybacks. "Announced buybacks are driven by specific sectors."

21. Large caps vs. small caps. The Russell 1000 has outperformed the Russell 2000 by the widest margin since 1997 (9.2% vs. 0.7%).

22. Big Tech vs. small caps. "The ratio of Nasdaq 100-to-Russell 2000 is now retesting the peak of the tech bubble levels."

23. Cap- vs. equal weight SPX. "So far, this is the largest annual outperformance between the S&P 500 and its equal-weight index since 1999."

24. Beta vs. quality. "S&P 500 high-beta stocks are starting to outperform quality stocks."

25. Return factors. "Some 41% of 492 market participants surveyed said the highest returns this year would come from buying quality stocks focused on profitability, while selling those that disappoint on those factors."

26. S&P 500 outlook. "A majority of survey respondents expect modest moves or no gains from here on."

27. Tech valuation. "Since market’s October low, S&P 500 Tech sector’s forward P/E (blue) has soared by nearly 46%, while forward EPS (orange) are still down."

28. Calm market. "The S&P 500...has moved less than 1% in either direction for 36 of the last 46 sessions...the quietest 46-day stretch since December 2021."

29. SPX breadth. "A Majority of the time a Majority of stocks UNDERPERFORM index $SPX."

30. Sector relative strength. And finally, “six of eleven sectors are making one-year lows in relative strength (vs. the broad market): Consumer Staples, Financials, Health Care, Materials, Real Estate, and Utilities.”

Thanks for reading!