DC Lite #101

Welcome back to DC Lite: Daily Chartbook’s free, entry-level newsletter containing 5 of the day’s best charts & insights.

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1. NFP (I). The US added 303k jobs in March—more than 50% above the consensus forecast (200k)—for the largest gain in 10 months.

2. Fiscal deterioration. US net interest payments have reached the highest level since March 1996 (top chart). Back then, debt-to-GDP was just 64% whereas today it is 122% (bottom).

3. Leveraged loan fund flows. "This week’s inflow to loans was the strongest weekly inflow since April 2022, at [+$1.35bn] from +$0.84bn the prior week."

4. Consumers vs. stock prices. The percentage of consumers expecting higher stock prices is at 49.3%, per Conference Board. That number has only ever been higher once, in January 2018 (51%). Following that instance, the $SPX generated negative returns over the next 1-, 3-, 6-, 9-, and 12-months.

5. Q1 guidance. Both the number (62) and percentage (71%) of S&P 500 companies issuing negative guidance for Q1 rank as the second-highest ever.