DC Lite #106

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1. Sell side vs. Fed. "The March inflation report triggered a jailbreak by the sell-side bank and other Fed forecasters, who largely abandoned prior calls for a June cut. Most now see the first cut no sooner than Q3, and there's been a lot of movement towards expecting just one or two cuts this year."

2. Bitcoin halvings (I). Here's how BTC reacted in the first 30 days following each halving event. The next halving is in 1 week (April 19).

3. Corporate insiders. "Net stock buying by corporate insiders of publicly traded companies is the lowest in at least a decade."

4. VIX spikes (I). The VIX surged to a 5-month high after the biggest daily spike since March 2023.

5. R2K valuation (I). "The Russell 2000 has increasingly priced in the better macro backdrop, and absolute valuations are no longer cheap (16x fwd. P/E vs. 15x avg.)."