DC Lite #109

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1. Oil drivers. "Demand has been driving oil prices higher off of their lows from last year. If supply were to be disrupted for any extended period, that could drive prices quite a bit higher (20-30%). For now, the availability of existing supply is helping to keep prices restrained."

2. Bitcoin ownership. "Ownership tends to be highest exactly in the type of country where you’d expect it to be — that is, in those where the local fiat competitor tends to be bad."

3. US sector fund flows. Over the past week, "Real Estate (-2z), Health Care (-1.8z), Comm. Services (-1.5z) and Tech (-1.3z) saw the strongest relative outflows while Materials (1.5z), Energy (1.4z), and Financials (1.0z) saw the strongest relative inflows."

4. 200MA vs. 50MA. Green represents "the % of S&P500 stocks ABOVE their 200 day but BELOW their 50 day. In other words, a longer-term uptrend, but a short-term mess."

See:

5. Semis cycle. "We expected total semiconductor sales to return to YoY growth in 4Q23E, suggesting we are at the beginning of the next upcycle. Based on prior trends, semiconductor sales could grow YoY through the middle of ‘26E."