DC Lite #118

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1. Case-Shiller Home Prices. The 20-city home price index jumped 0.9% MoM in February to 7.3% YoY (vs. 6.7% est). The former is the largest increase since June 2023 while the latter is the largest since October 2022.

2. Consumer confidence. "Confidence retreated further in April, reaching its lowest level since July 2022 as consumers became less positive about the current labor market situation, and more concerned about future business conditions, job availability, and income."

3. PMI vs. stocks. Stocks typically do well during PMI expansion periods, led by Financials, Consumer Discretionary, and Materials. Tech has historically been the biggest laggard.

4. Tech vs. Treasuries. "The correlation between tech stocks and treasuries is now as positive as it was during the peak of the tech bubble in early 2000. This issue strikes at the heart of conventional 60/40 portfolios, as the risk of overweighting these two asset classes has significantly increased."

5. 2024 EPS. "The calendar year 2024 earnings estimate is holding up like a rock at around 9%.  Typically, it would be drifting lower at this stage, but we are only a few quarters into a new earnings up-cycle, so it makes sense for the estimates to hold up."