DC Lite #125

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1. US economic surprise. "It has been survey data that have driven the economic surprises into negative territory."

2. Household finances. "Only 72% of Americans said they were doing ‘at least okay’ financially in 2023, the lowest since 2016 (aside from an extra one-off reading taken during the initial outbreak of the pandemic in April 2020)."

3. Weekly ETF flows. "U.S. large-cap equity EFTs saw most inflows last week with interest in global funds picking up ... fixed income had inflows but they were relatively mild (and led by government bonds)."

4. Analyst dispersion. "If everyone else is coalescing around assumptions that are fundamentally positive for stocks, such as decent earnings growth and declining inflation, then it grows more dangerous to bet against them, at least in the short term."

5. Active manager performance. "US active equity performance deteriorated to 40% of funds in 2023 above benchmarks on 3Y, from 46% in 2022 (vs 49% in 2021)."