DC Lite #136

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1. NFP preview. "We believe the goldilocks range for NFP is +125-175K ... Sub-125K gains in NFP could increase the risk of triggering the Sahm Rule*, reviving recession fears in the market."

2. Productivity & labor costs. "Q1 unit labor costs revised much lower, to 4% from 4.7%. Bring y/y to 0.9%, while productivity grew 2.9% y/y (highest since Q1 2021). That will keep a lid on headline inflation."

3. Gold ETF flows. "Global gold ETFs saw net inflows in May (US$529mn) - the first monthly net inflow for a year!"

4. Active managers vs. US equities. The NAAIM Exposure Index dropped to 68.6 from 92.2, the sharpest decline since January.

5. SPX peaks. Since 1920, the S&P 500 has peaked for the year in June just once (1948).