DC Lite #332

In partnership with

1. Tariffs vs. PCE. "Goldman now expects core PCE to rise to 3.5% this year versus 3.0% under previous assumptions for less aggressive tariffs. They expect the Fed to cut three times in the second half of the year to address the hit to growth and employment."

2. Hard vs. soft data. "So far, the softness in US soft data (sentiment) has not spilled over to hard data. Based on our calculation, soft data is now implying a contraction, while hard data continues to indicate above-trend growth."

3. CTAs vs. US equities. "We have CTAs short -$30bn of US equities. Estimates over the next week and month are relatively insignificant."

4. SPX trend. "The trend is your friend, until it ends. The U.S. stock market is no longer in an Up-trend."

5. SPX earnings revisions. And finally, the S&P 500 earnings revisions ratio (upward revisions vs. downward revisions) is at its lowest since 2020.

ICYMI

• Fri 3/28 #331: "A record 51% of UMich survey respondents are now making unsolicited negative comments about government economic policy"

• Thu 3/27 #330: There have only been 2 other instances where the % of AAII bears stayed above 50% for at least 5 consecutive weeks

• Wed 3/26 #329: "Traders are piling into 5Y Treasuries as tariff risks cloud the Fed’s rate path"

• Tue 3/25 #328: "High-yield credit spreads are now back below their 2024 average"

• Mon 3/24 #327: "Futures Traders have accumulated a rare Long VIX position"