DC Lite #148

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1. CRE prices. National commercial real estate prices are starting to rebound, particularly for Industrial and Retail.

2. Air travel. "TSA throughput reached 2.996 million people on Sunday ... a new high."

3. Bitcoin sentiment. Bitcoin sentiment has fallen to extremely pessimistic levels. Over the past 10 years, perhaps counterintuitively, this has generally not been a great "buy" signal.

4. Asset manager positioning. "Asset managers have increased their net long position on E-mini SPX futures, which we believe confirms the rally on the SPX from its April low ... Positioning is back to the July 2021 net long peak level but there is some room to run to the peak positioning level of early 2020"

5. SPX vs. regional PMIs. "The S&P has become very stretched versus [the] mean [of regional Fed manufacturing indices]. In fact, the gap has only been wider 5% of the time going back to 1980. That has historically not been good for S&P returns more than three months out."