DC Lite #151

Welcome back to DC Lite: Daily Chartbook’s free, entry-level newsletter containing 5 of the day’s best charts & insights. Upgrade to get all 30 charts.

Administrative note: There will be no DC Lite on July 4 and 5. Publishing will resume the following Friday, July 8.

1. US freight. "Tender rejections are now above 6% for the first time since July 2022.  This is a huge sign that conditions in the freight market are tightening.  The risk of a capacity crunch in the trucking market during the 2H is real."

2. Personal savings rate. "Saving rate edged up in May, but it's still well below prepandemic norm. Positive spin: Americans aren't feeling the need to pull back spending. Neg. spin: Americans are barely able to make ends meet."

3. Credit spreads. "The spread between the weakest and strongest investment-grade credits bottomed nearly two months ago. Credit concerns are rising even as stocks hit record highs. This is unusual and was last seen in late 2021."

4. Breadth mean reversion. "History suggests weak breadth itself isn’t a precursor of market weakness: in years of mega-cap leadership since 1986, the market was up the subsequent year nearly 75% of the time."

5. Stocks vs. July. As a reminder, the first half of July has been the best 2 week period for S&P 500 returns since 1928.