DC Lite #153

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1. Global macro surprises. Macro surprises have turned negative across regions.

2. Global monetary policy. "42% of 34 global central banks are already in easing mode, versus only 10% in July 2023, with consensus expectations projecting a doubling of the proportion from here to the end of 2024, providing a thrust to the global economy."

3. AAII asset allocation (I). Retail investor stock/cash allocations are at their highest/lowest since November 2021.

4. Nasdaq highs vs. lows. "This is not a healthy market. The Nasdaq Composite scored another new high on Monday. But fewer than 40% of stocks advanced, and there were more new lows than new highs. It joins only a few other sickly markets as precedents."

5. Global earnings trends. "Forward earnings expectations are up 8% in the U.S. and Japan, while other regions have seen more muted upward revisions (improved trajectory since mid-April though)."