DC Lite #158

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1. Fed fund probabilities. Fed swaps are pricing a 93% chance of a Fed cut in September, up from 53% a month ago.

2. Single stock vs. index volatility. “Single-stocks are priced for an up-crash, the index is not.”

3. Bull market CAGR. "Over a bull market cycle there are two times when being a bear you usually get the horns the most. At the beginning and at the end! Chart of S&P 500 CAGR by trading days across a bull market."

4. Equal-weight vs. cap-weight. Today's "divergence ranks in the 99th percentile over the past three decades."

5. IWM vs. QQQ. “$IWM best day vs $QQQ since 2001.”