DC Lite #163

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1. Jobless claims. Signs of softening in the labor market as both initial and continuing claims rose more than expected in the week ending July 13. The former tied a YTD high while the latter hit the highest since November 2021.

2. Retail investor sentiment. "AAII bulls up to 52.7% - highest level of this year and 2nd highest level since early 2021. Optimism is elevated, but risks become more acute when the crowd heads for the exits."

See:

3. Breadth vs. price divergence. "If the current pace keeps up over the next five and a half months, the total number of divergent days for the S&P 500 would total 62, easily setting a record dating back to at least 1990."

4. VIX seasonality. Seasonality suggests the recent surge in VIX is just the beginning of a larger move.

See: ,

5. EPS sentiment. "Earnings-per-share upgrades have fallen sharply for the Nasdaq 100, while upgrades for the S&P 500 and Russell 2000 are on the rise."