DC Lite #175

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1. Contributions to unemployment. "The US labor market is clearly slowing down. However the (relatively) good news is that the rise in unemployment isn't being driven by permanent layoffs."

See: The Overshoot

2. High propensity businesses. "Applications for 'high-propensity' businesses—those likely to hire employees—were running 26% higher in the second quarter than in the fourth quarter of 2019."

3. SLOOS. "Very good SLOOS report (no recession in sight):  1) banks no longer increasing rates on loans; 2) loan demand picking up; 3) few banks tightening lending standards."

4. CTAs vs. US equities. Goldman estimates CTAs will be sellers in virtually all scenarios over the next week and month.

5. SPX vs. VIX spikes. "Even if there is no recession, volatility in markets can last for a while. Our analysis of past volatility bouts shows that equities take 4-5 weeks, on average, before a sustained recovery begins."