DC Lite #177

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1. Credit card debt. “Revolving credit contracted by 0.13% month/month in June ... largest decline since March 2021 and second drop in the past few months.”

2. 10-year auction. "This is a very poor auction. Today's tail tied for the third worst auction over the seven years of data shown below (red bars, bottom panel)."

3. Institutional risk appetite. "Portfolio managers have been adding risk most of this year, but got a bit too bullish in mid-July, just as they had in July 2023. Both Julys ended up being near term highs for the S&P 500."

4. Implied volatility. "The options market is implying the S&P 500 Index will move 1.2% in either direction" tomorrow (jobless claims).

5. Margin exhaustion. "Signs of exhaustion in margin expansion are prompting investors to seek more clarity about the earnings impact from heavy capex on AI."