DC Lite #179

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1. Q3 GDP. "The New York Fed's Nowcast for Q3'24 real GDP growth was just revised to +2.24% vs. the prior estimate of +2.11%. Last week, everyone was panicking about an imminent recession."

See: Cubic Analytics

2. Markets vs. Fed. "Markets pricing in the most cuts since 2008."

3. Bonds vs. Sahm Rule. "This is the performance of the AGG in the 12 months following the triggering of the Sahm rule in past cycles. Since the rule indicates a recession - it makes sense that yields fall/bond returns rise but starting yields matter."

4. SPX vs. Sahm Rule. "The median performance indicates some downside risk over the following six months, but the interquartile and percentile ranges suggest a relatively positive performance over the subsequent year."

5. SPX Q2 growth (I). With 91% of the index reported, the blended YoY EPS and revenue growth rates for the S&P 500 are 10.8% and 5.2%. If realized, these would be the highest growth rates since Q4 2021 and Q4 2022, respectively.