DC Lite #179

5 of Friday's best charts and insights

Welcome back to DC Lite: Daily Chartbook’s free, entry-level newsletter containing 5 of the day’s best charts & insights. Upgrade to get all 30 charts.

1. Q3 GDP. "The New York Fed's Nowcast for Q3'24 real GDP growth was just revised to +2.24% vs. the prior estimate of +2.11%. Last week, everyone was panicking about an imminent recession."

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2. Markets vs. Fed. "Markets pricing in the most cuts since 2008."

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3. Bonds vs. Sahm Rule. "This is the performance of the AGG in the 12 months following the triggering of the Sahm rule in past cycles. Since the rule indicates a recession - it makes sense that yields fall/bond returns rise but starting yields matter."

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4. SPX vs. Sahm Rule. "The median performance indicates some downside risk over the following six months, but the interquartile and percentile ranges suggest a relatively positive performance over the subsequent year."

5. SPX Q2 growth (I). With 91% of the index reported, the blended YoY EPS and revenue growth rates for the S&P 500 are 10.8% and 5.2%. If realized, these would be the highest growth rates since Q4 2021 and Q4 2022, respectively.