DC Lite #184

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1. Wage growth. "Posted wage growth is no longer falling. In fact, it picked up in July to 3.2% … The pickup in July was pronounced in higher-wage sectors … There were also noticeable rises in lower-wage sectors."

2. Yen futures positioning. Per CFTC data, large speculator net positioning in yen futures flipped long this week for the first time since March 2021.

3. R2K vs. first cut. "The Russell 2000 tends to do well the year after the Fed starts cutting rates — an average gain of 11.4 per cent ... Unsurprisingly, the picture is a bit rosier when there isn’t a recession that follows the first rate cut."

4. SPX vs. put/call ratio. "Spikes in fear are typically bullish for the stock market, especially when they occur within the context of an established uptrend."

5. CAPE ratio. "At 35 times the average of the past decade’s earnings, adjusted for inflation, the S&P 500 is the third most expensive since the 19th century, and pricier than at 1929’s high."