DC Lite #185

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1. Unemployment expectations. According to the latest NY Fed SCE Labor Market Survey, 4.4% of workers expect to transition into unemployment in the next 4 months, the highest share in data going back to 2014.

2. Global Liquidity Index. "Global liquidity is on the rise, following a long-term cycle."

3. CTAs vs. global equities. "We have CTAs modeled SHORT -$10bn of global equities (40th %tile) after selling $159bn of equities last month globally. Over the next week, we have CTAs modeled to buy in every scenario (flat/up/down tapes)… +$86bn to buy in a flat tape globally is the largest estimate we have on record."

4. SPX vs. election years. The S&P 500 is still on track for one of its best election years on record.

See: JottingOnCharts.

5. Small cap EPS outlook. "The profits recovery has once again been pushed out another quarter – with 3Q S&P 600 y/y EPS growth now projected to be negative."