DC Lite #188

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1. Multiple jobholders. "The percent of US workers holding more than 1 job stands at 5.3%, the same as the end of the last economic expansion and well below the 1990s peak of 6.5%."

2. Mixed messages. Surging stocks suggest a soft landing, rising bonds and gold signal a hard landing, falling prices for economically sensitive oil and copper point to weak global growth, and a lower USD raises doubts about international investor confidence.

3. Fed vs. market. "Historically, the Fed has been relatively gradual in policy easing during soft landings, which contrasts with current market pricing."

4. VIX vs. realized vol. "The speed with which the VIX has fallen both absolutely and relative to cross-asset volatility lays the ground for further episodes of turbulence in the market. The VIX is historically low versus RV."

5. Rolling returns. Rolling 1-year returns for the S&P 500 and equal-weight RSP are 1.1 and 0.4 standard deviations above their 20-year means, respectively.