DC Lite #195

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1. Construction spending. Spending fell 0.3% MoM in July,  the first monthly drop (after revisions) since October 2022.

2. ISM Manufacturing (II). "The goods-producing side of the economy is in trouble. Excluding the pandemic, the ISM production index (44.8) hit is lowest level since April 2009. New orders declined for the fourth time in the last five months. There is no need to build inventories. Not an encouraging report."

3. Stocks vs. bonds. "Stocks and bonds aren’t moving in the same direction any more. The 21-session correlation between the daily change in the S&P 500 and long-term US Treasury bonds is now at its most negative since the second quarter of 2023."

4. Sell Side Indicator. "The SSI is the closest it has been to 'Sell' since January 2022 ... current level 56.2% suggests a price return of 11.5% for the S&P 500 over the next 12 months, lower than recent history but still healthy."

5. SPX top 10 contributions. “Not bullish nor bearish, just data - and perhaps more reflective of how skewed indices are at the top tier today.”